Kyle Pitts Sr. or T.J. Hockenson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
• Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
• The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
• The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.

The call

• Role is not the question: he's the clear top receiving tight end in a 1a/1b split with blocker Josh Oliver, at a 78% snap share and a 16% target share over 15 games — that's genuine TE1 usage.
• The problem is the ceiling this week. A 9.2-point projection and TE16 consensus rank sit right on top of the streaming pool, so he isn't a clear upgrade over a typical replacement.
• Matchup gives no edge either way: Green Bay grades 12 of 32 vs the position, and that composite comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's noise.
• Game script is neutral-to-fine — 21.5 implied total in a 1.5-point game means no blowout risk in either direction. If you're choosing between him and an unproven streamer, the target share tips it to start; if your bench TE has a plus matchup, sit him.