Khalil Shakir or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Usage is efficient but rationed: 20 routes on Allen's 32 dropbacks and 31 of 58 snaps (53%) means he's off the field for nearly half the offense, which caps the ceiling even on a 21% target share.
• Environment is the best part of the case — a 27.8 implied total with Buffalo favored by 3 keeps Allen throwing, and Detroit grades 24 of 32 vs the position (though that's a 1-game, zero-confidence sample).
• Consensus has him WR48 at 10.2 projected points, which is below the typical 12-team PPR flex bar; he's a volume-dependent play, not a set-and-forget starter.
• Tiebreaker: if your alternative is a boom-bust WR4 with no defined role, start Shakir for the target floor — if you have a full-time WR3 with similar projection, sit him.

The call

• A 25% target share is elite for the position; Andrews is the clear passing-game focal point at TE with a 72% snap share and no injury designation.
• Baltimore's 27.0 implied total and -7.5 spread point to a high-scoring, red-zone-heavy script, which is exactly where Andrews cashes in on touchdowns.
• The DvP composite of 12 of 32 reads mildly unfavorable, but it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to override the usage.
• Risk is the 10.1 projection and TE15 label: if Baltimore builds a lead and leans run, the volume ceiling narrows to a 6-8 point day.