Start Mark Andrews over KC Concepcion — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews' scoring environment outweighs Concepcion's rookie upside

Start Mark Andrews: the small projection gap understates the difference between a TE1 with a red-zone role and a rookie facing a capped offense. Concepcion's starting assignment and YAC burst offer real upside, but Cleveland's scoring outlook makes sustained volume difficult to trust. Andrews' risk is his moderate snap share, while his Baltimore role gives him the cleaner path to a useful fantasy result.

What flips it: Andrews losing his red-zone role or Baltimore taking a major hit to its scoring outlook.

AI editor

KC Concepcion

WR54CLEvs JAX

5.67.39.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why KC Concepcion

Toss-Up

Rookie WR in a starting role. Twitchy slot/flanker with YAC burst and return-game background.

Toss-up — WR54 by consensus and projection: 16.5 implied team total caps the ceiling, 9.1 PPR projected vs JAX.

His starting role and return-game YAC ability give him a way to beat modest volume.
Cleveland's low scoring outlook can erase his receiving upside before the matchup matters.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

His red-zone mismatch role makes Baltimore's stronger scoring environment especially valuable at tight end.
The matchup is neutral, so his edge comes from role and scoring chances rather than coverage.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	KC Concepcion	Mark Andrews
Projected points	5.67.39.1	6.68.410.1
Consensus rank	WR54	TE11
Opponent vs position	JAX · 19 of 320-game sample	IND · 20 of 320-game sample
Receptions	28 of 32	25 of 32
Receiving Yards	18 of 32	31 of 32
Receiving TDs	11 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	30 of 32	24 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	—	17%(2025)
Reception share	—	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	16.5+7.5	26.5-3.5
Depth chart	WR2	TE1
Snap share	—	62%(2025)