Juwan Johnson or Pat Freiermuth: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Juwan Johnson: the steadier role wins a narrow tight-end call
Start Juwan Johnson, whose every-down role gives him the sturdier floor despite nearly identical scoring environments. The projection gap is noise at tight end; the meaningful separation is Johnson's stronger consensus standing and heavier involvement, while Freiermuth's difficult matchup limits his path to ceiling. Freiermuth's red-zone size and recent production are real positives, but Johnson's risk is that New Orleans' modest scoring outlook leaves his value dependent on converting limited high-leverage chances.
What flips it: A verified increase in Freiermuth's route or red-zone role.
AI editor
Juwan Johnson
5.07.08.9 Projected Points
Pat Freiermuth
4.56.58.5 Projected Points
Juwan Johnson’s market
Pat Freiermuth’s market
Why Juwan Johnson
Toss-Up· mediumTE1 and high-volume pass-catcher. Big-bodied converted receiver who is a red-zone and intermediate mismatch.
TE16 with an 84% snap share and 14% target share, but a 19.5 implied total and a rank-12 DvP matchup cap the ceiling.
- Johnson's converted-receiver background gives his strong snap role more receiving upside than a typical TE16.
- His red-zone mismatch profile is valuable because the Saints are not expected to score freely.
The call
- Role is locked in: 84% snap share and a 14% target share make him the clear TE1 in this offense, which is why he holds TE16 value at 8.9 projected points.
- The matchup works against him — Baltimore grades 12 of 32 versus tight ends (32 = softest), and the sample is one game with 0.00 confidence, so there's no soft spot to chase.
- Vegas paints a low-scoring day for New Orleans: 19.5 implied team total as a 7.5-point underdog. Chasing points should keep the passing volume up, but red-zone equity is thin.
- Tip it toward start if your alternative is a committee TE with sub-70% snaps; sit him if you have a TE attached to a team totaling 24-plus.
Latest on Johnson
With Alvin Kamara sidelined, fantasy managers are left to wonder who will pick up the carries for New Orleans.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Pat Freiermuth
SitTE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover with red-zone size and dependable hands.
Sit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE24: NE is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 14% target share.
- Freiermuth's dependable-hands profile keeps him viable if Pittsburgh leans on short-area targets.
- His recent form offers a credible path to beating Johnson if touchdowns drive the week.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Juwan Johnson | Pat Freiermuth |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.07.08.9 | 4.56.58.5 |
| Consensus rank | TE16 | TE24 |
| Opponent vs position | BAL · 12 of 321-game sample | NE · 2 of 321-game sample |
| Receptions | 5 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 2 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 21 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 11 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 20 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 14% | 14% |
| Reception share | 9% | 21% |
| Implied total · spread | 19.5+7.5 | 19.5+4.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 84% | 73% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Juwan Johnson — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs DET | 11.412.914.4 |
Pat Freiermuth — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 10.613.115.6 |
Signal breakdown
- 8.9 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsJuwan Johnson +
- Rank 16 vs 24Juwan Johnson +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 2 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 19.5 vs 19.5 team pointseven
- No injury designationseven
- 84% vs 73% snap shareJuwan Johnson +
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