Justin Herbert or Tyler Shough: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him as QB10 at 19.0 projected points, which is starter territory in every 12-team format regardless of matchup.
• A 28.5 implied team total means Los Angeles is expected to score plenty, and Herbert is the locked-in QB with no injury designation.
• Arizona's defense grades 22 of 32 against the position (softer half of the league), though the sample is thin so it's a nudge rather than the main argument.
• Only real drag is the -11.5 spread: a big lead could turn into a run-heavy fourth quarter and cap his passing volume, but the implied total says the points come first.

The call

• A 14.2-point projection and QB18 consensus rank put Shough outside the starting dozen in a 12-team PPR league; there's almost always a better streamer on waivers.
• The 20.8 implied team total is a modest offensive ceiling, and a 7-point deficit means garbage-time volume is the primary path to a usable score rather than efficient early-down production.
• The opponent DvP composite sits mid-pack at 17 of 32, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — there's no matchup edge here to override the projection.
• He's locked in as the starter with no injury designation, so this is purely a ceiling call: start him only in superflex or two-QB formats.