Jaylen Warren or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Tucker Kraft: his locked-in role outweighs Warren’s slight projection edge
Start Tucker Kraft: Warren’s receiving work keeps this from being a runaway, but his 37% snap share makes the nominal projection edge fragile. Kraft’s 66% role as Green Bay’s primary seam threat is more bankable, and his Week 1 workload supports that view (packers.com 2026-09-18). Warren’s RB1 profile, pass protection and 16% target share are legitimate PPR positives, but Pittsburgh’s lower scoring outlook and tough run matchup cap his margin. Kraft’s ACL recovery is the real risk, though he is reported fully back (packers.com 2026-09-18).
What flips it: A late restriction on Kraft’s snaps after his ACL return.
Sources: packers.com · Sep 18, 2026
AI editor
Jaylen Warren
8.910.111.4 Projected Points
Tucker Kraft
6.38.410.6 Projected Points
Jaylen Warren’s market
Tucker Kraft’s market
Why Jaylen Warren
Toss-Up· mediumRB1 and lead back. Compact, contact-balance runner with reliable third-down pass-protection and receiving work.
RB29 with just a 37% snap share and a 19.5 implied total, but a 16% target share keeps him alive as a PPR flex vs a top-10 tough run matchup.
- Warren’s pass-protection chops can preserve valuable third-down work if Pittsburgh falls behind.
- His receiving role gives him a credible PPR floor even with a limited overall snap share.
The call
- Role is the problem: a 37% snap share means he's not the every-down back, and the 11.4 projection lands him at RB29 — right on the 12-team flex line.
- New England's defense grades 10 of 32 vs the position (32 = softest), so this is a tougher-than-average box to run into, though it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence attached.
- Game script cuts both ways: a 19.5 implied total and 4.5-point spread limit the ceiling, but trailing football feeds his 16% target share, which is where his PPR floor lives.
- Tipping point: if he's the pass-game back on third downs and the Steelers fall behind, he's a usable flex; if this stays a low-scoring grind with a split backfield, bench him for a back with a locked-in workload.
Latest on Warren
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tucker Kraft
Start· mediumTE1 and primary seam threat. Physical yards-after-catch producer and capable in-line blocker; returning from injury.
TE9 at 10.6 projected with a locked-in role — 66% snaps, 15% target share, and fully back from the ACL after 3-65 in Week 1.
- Kraft can create value as both a seam target and in-line blocker, giving him multiple paths to production.
- Green Bay’s stronger scoring environment raises the payoff on Kraft’s established target role.
The call
- Consensus TE9 at 10.6 projected points clears the bar for a 12-team PPR starting tight end; there's no replacement-level alternative worth the swap.
- Role is secure: 66% snap share and 15% target share as the clear TE1, and packers.com confirms he's fully back from the torn ACL after a 45-snap, 3-catch, 65-yard Week 1.
- Game script fits — Green Bay is favored by 5.5 with a 24.0 implied total, so there's plenty of scoring volume and red-zone work available to him.
- Only real caution is the matchup grade (8 of 32 vs TE), but that's a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence and shouldn't outweigh the role.
Latest on Kraft
Tucker Kraft played 45 snaps in Week 1 and caught three passes for 65 yards.
Contract extension is dream come true for Tucker Kraftpackers.com · Sep 18, 2026Tucker Kraft is fully back from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 campaign.
Contract extension is dream come true for Tucker Kraftpackers.com · Sep 18, 2026General Manager Brian Gutekunst announced the transaction Saturday
The Packers and tight end Tucker Kraft have reached agreement on a four-year extension worth up to $92 million, sources told ESPN.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jaylen Warren | Tucker Kraft |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.910.111.4 | 6.38.410.6 |
| Consensus rank | RB29 | TE9 |
| Opponent vs position | NE · 10 of 321-game sample | NYJ · 8 of 321-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 14 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 13 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 12 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 16 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 1 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 11 of 32 |
| Target share | 16% | 15% |
| Reception share | 21% | 14% |
| Implied total · spread | 19.5+4.5 | 24.0-5.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 37% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | 0–1 |
Recent form
Jaylen Warren — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 5.37.810.3 |
Tucker Kraft — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs MIN | 6.58.09.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.4 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsJaylen Warren +
- Rank 29 vs 9Tucker Kraft +
- Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 19.5 vs 24.0 team pointsTucker Kraft +
- No injury designationseven
- 37% vs 66% snap shareTucker Kraft +
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