Jalen Hurts or Malik Willis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Hurts' rushing floor turns the Eagles' favorable script into the safer QB start

Hurts' goal-line rushing and locked-in QB1 role make Philadelphia's favorable scoring environment especially valuable, giving him a much safer ceiling than Willis. Willis brings real designed-run and strong-arm upside, but Miami's lower scoring expectation and his transition into a new offense leave less margin for a breakout. The actual risk is Hurts' production taking a hit if Philadelphia wins without needing his legs, but that is not enough to overcome the role and game-script gap.

What flips it: A major late downgrade to Hurts' availability.

Sources: philadelphiaeagles.com · Sep 2, 2026 · Yahoo Sports · Sep 1, 2026

AI editor

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts

QB6PHIvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· high
Malik Willis

Malik Willis

QB21MIAvs LV

Projected Points

Sit

Jalen Hurts’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 211.5
-115 / -115
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
+115 / -147
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
+114 / -146
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 29.5
-115 / -109
Rushing Yards Props →

Malik Willis’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 179.5
-113 / -111
PASS TD
O/U 0.5
-198 / +154
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-124 / -103
RUSH YDS
O/U 37.5
-140 / +105
WSH@
PHISun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
LVSun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Jalen Hurts

Start· high

Starting QB and franchise cornerstone. Dual-threat with elite short-yardage rushing and Super Bowl pedigree.

QB6 with 21.1 projected points, no injury designation and a 26.0 implied team total as 5.5-point favorites — automatic lineup lock.

  • His rushing and short-yardage role convert Philadelphia's scoring chances into both floor and touchdown upside.
  • The Eagles have already identified him as their QB1, supporting a full-time role. (philadelphiaeagles.com 2026-09-02)

The call

  • Consensus QB6 at 21.1 projected points: that is top-six production regardless of matchup, and no replacement-level QB on a 12-team waiver wire touches it.
  • Locked in as the Eagles' QB1 with no injury designation — the role and the rushing equity that props up his floor are untouched.
  • A 26.0 implied team total with a -5.5 spread points to a scoring script where Philadelphia controls the ball and Hurts cashes goal-line carries.
  • Only wrinkle is Sean Mannion calling plays from the booth, a scheme footnote that doesn't change Hurts' volume or designed-run role.

Latest on Hurts

Role

Jalen Hurts will work with Sean Mannion, who is likely to call plays from the Coaches' Booth in the opener.

Spadaro: Jalen Hurts knows past success against Commanders doesn't mean anythingphiladelphiaeagles.com · Sep 10, 2026
An Eagles Q&A: Is Hurts acclimating? Will Lemon contribute?

There is no shortage of storylines surrounding the Eagles as they ready for an intrigue-filled 2026 season.

ESPN · Sep 4, 2026
Eagles' Hurts agrees that he, Brown grew apart last season

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts confirmed former teammate A.J. Brown's comments that the two had grown apart last season in QB's interview with GQ magazine.

ESPN · Sep 3, 2026
Eagles GM says this season isn't make-or-break for Jalen Hurts

Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said he does not agree with the idea that this is a make-or-break season for Jalen Hurts.

ESPN · Sep 2, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Malik Willis

Sit

Starting QB with dual-threat mobility. Strong arm and designed-run value; a career backup signed in free agency to take over the job.

Sit — bench-tier QB at consensus QB21: 42% snap share in 2025, 15.1 PPR projected vs LV.

  • Designed runs and a strong arm give Willis a path to outperform a conservative projection.
  • Old Green Bay samples are poor evidence for his Miami outlook after the offseason move. (Yahoo Sports 2026-09-01)

Latest on Willis

Role

Malik Willis is preparing to start the season opener as QB1.

Transcript: QB Malik Willis Press Conference - September 9miamidolphins.com · Sep 9, 2026
Role

Malik Willis is no longer on the Packers; he signed with the Miami Dolphins in free agency and is now Miami's starting quarterback for 2026, so any Green Bay-based stat sample for him predates this offseason move.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 1, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricJalen HurtsMalik Willis
Projected points
Consensus rankQB6QB21
Opponent vs positionWSHno ranking yetLVno ranking yet
Implied total · spread26.0-5.519.3+3.0
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share98%(2025)42%(2025)

Signal breakdown

  • 21.1 vs 15.1 projected PPR pointsJalen Hurts +
  • Rank 6 vs 21Jalen Hurts +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 26.0 vs 19.3 team pointsJalen Hurts +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 98% vs 42% snap shareJalen Hurts +

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