Start Jake Tonges over John Bates — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Tonges wins the tiebreaker, but neither tight end earns a start

Jake Tonges gets the call because his red-zone role offers a clearer path to a touchdown, and San Francisco has the stronger scoring outlook. The matchup and availability edges matter more than the tiny projection gap: Los Angeles is merely middling against tight ends, while Philadelphia is among the toughest, and Bates is questionable. Tonges still carries a thin-volume risk as a TE2, so this is a preference between sits, not a confidence play; Bates' blocking role offers little weekly target floor.

What flips it: A downgrade to Tonges' availability or news that Bates will handle a larger receiving role.

AI editor

Jake Tonges

TE26SFvs LAR

1.21.62.1 Projected Points

Sit· high

John Bates

TEWSHvs PHI

1.11.51.9 Projected Points

Sit

Why Jake Tonges

Sit· high

TE2 with red-zone productivity. Reliable inline blocker who converted heavy snaps into scoring targets.

TE26 with a 2.1-point projection — a 52% snap share and 14% target share haven't turned into usable TE production against a middling LAR matchup.

Red-zone productivity gives Tonges a touchdown route despite his limited every-down role.
The main danger is volume: an inline TE2 can disappear if San Francisco doesn't reach scoring range.

The call

The projection is the story: 2.1 PPR points and a TE26 consensus rank put him well below any startable tight end in a 12-team league.
He's on the field for just 52% of snaps with a 14% target share — a rotational role that produces touchdown-or-bust weeks, not a floor you can trust.
The LAR matchup grades middle of the pack (17 of 32) and the 0-game sample carries zero confidence, so there's no matchup edge to bet on here.
At a 22.8 implied total with a 3.0 spread, this isn't a shootout script that would force volume his way.

Why John Bates

Sit

TE2 in blocking role. In-line grinder used in heavy sets and short-yardage.

Sit — projects TE59 this week: PHI is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 7% target share in 2025.

Bates' heavy-set usage makes a big receiving game unlikely even before the matchup is considered.
Questionable status adds late-week lineup risk to an already fragile fantasy profile.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Tonges	John Bates
Projected points	1.21.62.1	1.11.51.9
Consensus rank	TE26	—
Opponent vs position	LAR · 17 of 3217-game sample	PHI · 2 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	22 of 32	2 of 32
Receiving Yards	12 of 32	1 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	22 of 32	6 of 32
Anytime TD	20 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	7%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	7%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	20.5+5.5
Depth chart	TE2	TE2
Snap share	52%(2025)	55%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable