Jake Ferguson or Rashid Shaheed: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Ferguson — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Jake Ferguson is the higher consensus play (TE12 to WR57) and projects 9.8 to Shaheed's 9.0. No signal favors Shaheed this week. The gap is comfortable.
Jake Ferguson
5.57.69.8 Projected Points
Rashid Shaheed
6.37.69.0 Projected Points
Why Jake Ferguson
Start· mediumTE1 and high-volume receiving tight end. Reliable chain-mover and red-zone target over the middle.
TE12 with a 17% target share and thinned-out TE room behind him — Ferguson is a volume play in a one-score game with a 25-point implied total.
- Vegas implies 25.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share in 2025.
The call
- 17% target share on a 67% snap share is legitimate TE1 usage; he's the pass-catching hub at the position for Dallas, not a rotational piece.
- Reported injuries to Schoonmaker and Michael Trigg push even more snaps and routes his way, protecting his floor.
- Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread and a 25.0 implied team total mean Dallas throws in a competitive game rather than sitting on a lead.
- Risk is touchdown-dependence — at 9.8 projected points he's a floor start rather than a ceiling swing, so he's TE12-level rather than a set-and-forget top option.
Latest on Ferguson
With Schoonmaker and practice-squad TE Michael Trigg banged up, the Cowboys will lean heavily on Jake Ferguson and Brevyn Spann-Ford at tight end in Week 1 and beyond.
Sports Illustrated (Cowboys On SI), CBS Sports · Sep 10, 2026Veteran defensive tackle Kenny Clark, cornerback DaRon Bland and tight end Jake Ferguson had their deals reworked to give Dallas flexibility, sources said.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Rashid Shaheed
StartStarting WR2 and pure vertical burner. Elite straight-line speed, field-tilting deep threat with return-game background.
Start — WR57 consensus, projects WR56 this week: NE is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs WRs, 24.0 implied team total.
- NE ranks 3 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.
Latest on Shaheed
In advance of the biggest draft weekend, Liz Loza reveals her strongest thoughts to help you have a successful draft.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jake Ferguson | Rashid Shaheed |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.57.69.8 | 6.37.69.0 |
| Consensus rank | TE12 | WR57 |
| Opponent vs position | NYGno ranking yet | NE · 3 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | — | 2 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | — | 4 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 3 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 1 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | — | 3 of 32 |
| Target share | 17%(2025) | 13% |
| Reception share | 20%(2025) | 6% |
| Implied total · spread | 25.0-1.5 | 24.0-3.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 67%(2025) | 66% |
Signal breakdown
- 9.8 vs 9.0 projected PPR pointsJake Ferguson +
- Rank 12 vs 57Jake Ferguson +
- Matchup (DvP composite)even
- Implied 25.0 vs 24.0 team pointsJake Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 67% vs 66% snap shareJake Ferguson +
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