Start Tyler Warren over Isaiah Likely — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Tyler Warren: the TE1 role outweighs Isaiah Likely's cleaner availability

Start Tyler Warren because his every-down role and heavier receiving involvement give him the sturdier path to a difference-making TE performance. The matchup is less inviting, but the gap matters more at tight end when one player is a featured mismatch and the other is a lower-volume seam threat; [colts.com 2026-08-11] reinforces Warren's first-team usage. Likely's slight team-total edge and no injury designation keep this from being automatic, while Warren's questionable tag is the real risk.

What flips it: A late downgrade or inactive designation for Warren.

Sources: colts.com · Aug 11, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

TE12NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Warren

TE4INDvs BAL

7.39.812.2 Projected Points

Start

Why Isaiah Likely

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE12 at 9.4 projected is the literal last starting TE slot — 59% snaps and a 14% target share make him a floor play, not a difference-maker.

Likely's red-zone mismatch ability gives him touchdown upside even without a featured weekly workload.
His clean availability removes the late-news risk attached to Warren.

The call

Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter cutoff: fine if your alternative is a waiver dart, benchable if you have a locked-in top-10 option.
Role is real but not dominant — 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he's on the field for most passing downs without commanding a true focal-point workload.
The DvP composite of 10 of 32 grades this as a tougher-than-average draw, but with a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence there's nothing to actually lean on either way.
Game script is neutral-to-helpful: a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive game with enough volume to reach his projection, which is what tips him in if he's your best available body.

Why Tyler Warren

Start

TE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.

Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE4: BAL is the 5th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 21% target share in 2025.

Warren's move-piece role creates more ways to earn points than a matchup-dependent seam route.
First-team late-game practice usage supports confidence that his featured role is intact.

Latest on Warren

Role

Tyler Warren was a frequent target in practice, catching three passes from Daniel Jones during the first-team offense's late-game scenario.

Training Camp Notebook: Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren shine as joint practice with Patriots ends on a high note colts.com · Aug 11, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Isaiah Likely	Tyler Warren
Projected points	5.67.59.4	7.39.812.2
Consensus rank	TE12	TE4
Opponent vs position	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample	BAL · 5 of 320-game sample
Receptions	16 of 32	7 of 32
Receiving Yards	16 of 32	9 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	9 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	21%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+1.5	23.0+3.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	59%(2025)	84%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—