Isaiah Likely or Rico Dowdle: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, literally the last starting tight end in a 12-team league — no margin over a typical waiver TE.
• Role is real but not dominant: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he needs volume or a red-zone look to clear his projection.
• Matchup leans the wrong way — Dallas grades 10 of 32 on the DvP composite (32 = softest), though the 0-game sample means low confidence in that read.
• Reported plan to use him as a 'big slot receiver' with only five wide receivers available is the tipping point: if that materializes and Nabers is limited, his target share jumps and he becomes a start; if he's back to a standard TE snap count, sit him.

The call

• Role is locked in as the listed RB with a 56% snap share and a 10% target share over a 17-game sample — that pass-game involvement is the PPR floor that separates him from replacement-level backs.
• Vegas sets Atlanta as a 3-point underdog with a 22.8 implied team total for Dowdle's side, a script that keeps the ball in his hands late rather than forcing a pass-only game plan.
• Matchup is the flat part of the case: the DvP composite ranks 13 of 32 on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way.
• RB26 with no injury designation is a fringe RB2/flex, not a set-and-forget starter — if you have a top-24 back with a genuinely soft matchup, play that instead.