Isaiah Likely or Quentin Johnston: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Likely’s mismatch role meets Johnston’s bigger offensive runway

Likely’s Week 1 breakout was more than a box-score fluke: he led the Giants’ pass catchers in grading, went eight-for-eight and scored twice while taking over slot work [Yahoo Sports (PFF) 2026-09-14]. Johnston counters with the better environment: a high-scoring Chargers offense and an every-down path if Ladd McConkey sits [USA Today/Yahoo Sports 2026-09-14]. That leaves the call level—Likely owns the stronger tight-end standing and red-zone matchup, while Johnston has the sturdier snap foundation. The risk on Likely is limited playing time in a low-total offense; Johnston’s risk is losing target priority if McConkey returns.

What flips it: McConkey is cleared to play.

Sources: Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026 · USA Today/Yahoo Sports · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs LAR

Projected Points

Start· medium
Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston

WR47LACvs LV

Projected Points

Start· medium

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-104 / -123
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 42.5
-111 / -118
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+275
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Quentin Johnston’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-154 / +121
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 46.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+190
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYG@
LARMon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
LV@
LACSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share and a 8-of-8, two-TD Week 1 line keep Likely in the TE1 mix; 8.5-point dog script means pass volume.

  • Slot deployment gives Likely a path to repeat his breakout beyond traditional tight-end routes.
  • His red-zone mismatch profile can overcome the Giants’ modest scoring outlook.

The call

  • Week 1 usage is the whole case: a 28% target share with all eight targets caught for two scores, plus 17 slot snaps taken over from another starter, is TE1-level involvement no matter the 49% snap rate.
  • The 8.5-point spread and 20.0 implied total point to a chase script — more dropbacks, more underneath and seam work for the guy who is now the de facto slot option.
  • The DvP composite reads 7 of 32 (tough), but it's a one-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh a locked-in target role.
  • Risk is the sub-50% snap share: if the offense stays in heavier personnel or the game hangs close, volume could dip toward the TE14 projection rather than beat it.

Latest on Likely

Role

Likely led the Giants' Week 1 pass-catchers with an 82.8 PFF grade, catching all eight targets for two touchdowns and taking over much of the slot receiver role (17 slot snaps) previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson.

Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026
Isaiah Likely's Week 2 preview
VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Quentin Johnston

Start· medium

Starting outside WR2. Big-bodied contested-catch target with red-zone scoring production.

78% snaps and a 22% target share as WR-2, with McConkey's status in doubt clearing the way for a top-two target role in a 25.5-point offense.

  • Johnston’s outside role supplies more stable playing time than Likely’s 49% snap rate.
  • A McConkey absence would make Johnston a top-two receiver in a favorable scoring environment.

The call

  • Johnston led Chargers receivers in Week 1 snaps (78%) alongside Tre' Harris, and a 22% target share already puts him in flex-viable volume territory before any injury bump.
  • The quoted report has Johnston operating as one of the top two receivers if Keenan McConkey sits — that's a target-share upgrade on a team with a 25.5 implied total.
  • The 8.5-point spread is the main friction: a big lead can shorten the passing script late, and the DvP composite (11 of 32) is a below-average matchup on a one-game sample with zero confidence.
  • At WR47 with a 10.0-point projection he's a starting-caliber flex over replacement level, but he's a volume play, not a ceiling lock — confirm McConkey's status before locking him in.

Latest on Johnston

Role

With McConkey's Week 2 status in doubt, Johnston and Tre' Harris led all Chargers receivers in Week 1 snaps and would operate as the top two receivers if McConkey sits out.

USA Today/Yahoo Sports · Sep 14, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyQuentin Johnston
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14WR47
Opponent vs positionLAR · 7 of 321-game sampleLV · 11 of 321-game sample
Receptions9 of 328 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 3223 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 321 of 32
Targets15 of 3222 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 321 of 32
Target share28%22%
Reception share35%12%
Implied total · spread20.0+8.525.5-8.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share49%78%
Start/Sit record1–00–1

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 1 week

Week 1vs DAL

Quentin Johnston — last 1 week

Week 1vs ARI

Signal breakdown

  • 11.0 vs 9.9 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 47Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 7 vs 11 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 20.0 vs 25.5 team pointsQuentin Johnston +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 49% vs 78% snap shareQuentin Johnston +

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