Isaiah Likely or Luther Burden III: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Usage is the case: a 28% target share plus 17 slot snaps — work previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson — means Likely is a primary target in this passing game, not a rotational TE.
• Week 1 was emphatic: all eight targets caught for two touchdowns and an 82.8 PFF grade, the best mark among Giants pass-catchers.
• The Rams grade as a top-10 defense vs. tight ends, but that composite is a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a 28%-target TE.
• Risk is the 20.0 implied total and a 49% snap share; the 8.5-point spread cuts the other way, since trailing means more dropbacks and more Likely targets.

The call

• Minnesota grades 29 of 32 in defense-vs-WR composite, though it's a one-game sample — the softness is a tiebreaker, not the whole case.
• Role is the real driver: 73% snap share and a 19% target share as the WR-2, and he out-targeted Rome Odunze in Week 1 (5 catches on 5 targets, 63 yards).
• Chicago is favored by 3.5 with a 24.5 implied total — enough scoring environment to support a full route tree without a run-heavy blowout script.
• Risk is the thin body of work: one game of usage data, and Odunze can reclaim volume any week, which caps this at a flex-level start rather than a lock.