Isaiah Likely or Josh Downs: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Likely: slot usage gives him the edge over Downs

Start Isaiah Likely, but the edge is narrow rather than decisive. His Week 1 takeover of the slot gives his red-zone mismatch skill a more concentrated path to targets than a normal TE role (Yahoo Sports (PFF) 2026-09-14). Downs offers the sturdier playing-time floor and a slightly better team outlook, but Kansas City's difficult receiver matchup limits his efficiency. Likely's risk is role durability; if the slot work disappears, this call quickly tightens.

What flips it: A snap-count return to Likely's tight-end-only role.

Sources: Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs LAR

Projected Points

Start· medium
Josh Downs

Josh Downs

WR48INDvs KC

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-104 / -123
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 42.5
-111 / -118
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+275
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Josh Downs’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+126 / -162
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 42.5
-111 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+310
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYG@
LARMon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
IND@
KCSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share and a 8-of-8, two-TD Week 1 line keep Likely in the TE1 mix; 8.5-point dog script means pass volume.

  • Slot work gives Likely a second route to production beyond traditional tight-end alignments.
  • His underdog script can funnel late targets his way, if the expanded role holds.

The call

  • Week 1 usage is the whole case: a 28% target share with all eight targets caught for two scores, plus 17 slot snaps taken over from another starter, is TE1-level involvement no matter the 49% snap rate.
  • The 8.5-point spread and 20.0 implied total point to a chase script — more dropbacks, more underneath and seam work for the guy who is now the de facto slot option.
  • The DvP composite reads 7 of 32 (tough), but it's a one-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh a locked-in target role.
  • Risk is the sub-50% snap share: if the offense stays in heavier personnel or the game hangs close, volume could dip toward the TE14 projection rather than beat it.

Latest on Likely

Role

Likely led the Giants' Week 1 pass-catchers with an 82.8 PFF grade, catching all eight targets for two touchdowns and taking over much of the slot receiver role (17 slot snaps) previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson.

Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026
Isaiah Likely's Week 2 preview
VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Josh Downs

Toss-Up

WR2 working primarily from the slot. Twitchy separator with reliable chain-moving production.

Toss-up — WR48 consensus, projects WR52 this week: KC is the 4th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 14% target share.

  • Downs' heavier deployment gives him the safer floor if Indianapolis avoids an early deficit.
  • His best path is volume, not efficiency, against a difficult Kansas City receiver matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyJosh Downs
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14WR48
Opponent vs positionLAR · 7 of 321-game sampleKC · 4 of 321-game sample
Receptions9 of 323 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 323 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 321 of 32
Targets15 of 3211 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 321 of 32
Target share28%14%
Reception share35%11%
Implied total · spread20.0+8.520.5+6.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share49%89%
Start/Sit record1–0—

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 1 week

Week 1vs DAL

Josh Downs — last 1 week

Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 11.0 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 48Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 7 vs 4 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 20.0 vs 20.5 team pointsJosh Downs +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 49% vs 89% snap shareJosh Downs +

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