Start Jake Tonges over Elijah Higgins — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Both TE2s are bench fodder, but Tonges' target share and clean health edge it

Neither of these tight ends belongs in a lineup this week, and the model treats them that way — this is about which bench stash is marginally less dead. Higgins carries the shinier matchup rank, but a 6% target share behind McBride means that softness never reaches him; he's a name on the field, not a target. Tonges' role is thin too, but a 14% target share and a share of red-zone work give him a sliver of a real path to points, and an implied total over 20 suggests his offense will have opportunities to hand out even if he's low on the pecking order. The clearest risk to trusting Tonges here is that his sample is tiny and the red-zone role hasn't translated to consistent production yet.

What flips it: A questionable tag for Higgins turning into a game-day scratch, or McBride sitting and forcing Higgins into real volume.

AI editor

Elijah Higgins

TEARIvs LAC

1.31.92.6 Projected Points

Sit· high

Jake Tonges

TE26SFvs LAR

1.21.62.1 Projected Points

Sit· high

Why Elijah Higgins

Sit· high

TE2 and converted receiver. Move-tight end role with rotational snaps behind McBride.

2.6 projected points on a 6% target share, plus a top-5 DvP matchup and a 17.0 implied total as 11.5-point dogs — unstartable TE.

Faces the 5th-softest DvP matchup at tight end, for whatever that's worth on a 6% target share.
Plays as a move-tight end, a role that can occasionally spring a schemed touch even off limited snaps.

The call

The usage isn't there: 43% snap share with just a 6% target share over 16 games means he's a blocking-first TE, not a receiving option worth a lineup spot.
Vegas paints an ugly picture — 11.5-point underdog with a 17.0 implied total, so there are few touchdowns to go around and the passing volume that does come won't funnel to him.
The Chargers rate 5 of 32 in DvP vs tight ends (softest = 32), so even the projected 2.6 points has little upside baked in.
Questionable tag adds pure downside risk to a floor that's already near zero — any waiver TE with a defined route role beats this.

Why Jake Tonges

Sit· high

TE2 with red-zone productivity. Reliable inline blocker who converted heavy snaps into scoring targets.

TE26 with a 2.1-point projection — a 52% snap share and 14% target share haven't turned into usable TE production against a middling LAR matchup.

Reliable inline blocking role has bled into some red-zone scoring chances this season.
Plays in a game implied near 23 points for his own offense, more scoring plays for the field to distribute.

The call

The projection is the story: 2.1 PPR points and a TE26 consensus rank put him well below any startable tight end in a 12-team league.
He's on the field for just 52% of snaps with a 14% target share — a rotational role that produces touchdown-or-bust weeks, not a floor you can trust.
The LAR matchup grades middle of the pack (17 of 32) and the 0-game sample carries zero confidence, so there's no matchup edge to bet on here.
At a 22.8 implied total with a 3.0 spread, this isn't a shootout script that would force volume his way.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Elijah Higgins	Jake Tonges
Projected points	1.31.92.6	1.21.62.1
Consensus rank	—	TE26
Opponent vs position	LAC · 5 of 320-game sample	LAR · 17 of 320-game sample
Receptions	3 of 32	22 of 32
Receiving Yards	4 of 32	12 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	2 of 32	22 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	20 of 32
Target share	6%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	8%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	17.0+11.5	22.8+3.0
Depth chart	TE2	TE2
Snap share	43%(2025)	52%(2025)
Injury designation	Questionable	—