David Montgomery or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Montgomery is the classic committee back: 37% snap share and a 5% target share mean his fantasy day lives on goal-line carries, not volume or PPR receiving floor.
• The matchup is neutral at best — Buffalo grades 20 of 32 in defense-vs-RB composite, and that composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no real edge to lean on.
• Game script is workable with a 1.5-point spread, but a 22.0 implied team total caps the scoring chances he needs to hit his RB21 projection.
• Tipping point: if he's the clear short-yardage/red-zone hammer he's a fine flex; if the split stays even and Houston trails, he's a 8-9 point back.

The call

• A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
• Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
• The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
• The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.