David Montgomery or J.K. Dobbins: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Week 1 usage is the whole case: 23 total touches — more than any 2025 game in Detroit — plus three touchdowns, so the 49% snap share understates his role as the goal-line and between-the-tackles back.
• Game script fits: Houston is a 2.5-point favorite with a 24.5 implied total, the kind of neutral-to-favorable script that keeps a lead back's carries and red-zone work flowing.
• Matchup is a wash — Cincinnati grades 16 of 32 vs RBs on a one-game sample with zero confidence — so this is a volume-and-role start, not a matchup exploit.
• Risk is the Woody Marks committee: Marks narrowly out-snapped him, and if the touchdown equity dries up, a 14.1-point projection at RB22 becomes a flex-level floor rather than a difference-maker.

The call

• The Week 1 usage is the tell: eight carries, team-high 36 yards, and no targets. A back with 0% target share in PPR needs volume or a score, and 43% snaps says he isn't getting the volume.
• The matchup is a negative, not a boost — Jacksonville grades 9 of 32 in the DvP composite (1 = stiffest), so the soft-spot argument isn't there even on a one-game sample.
• Game script is the one thing working for him: a 23.0 implied total as a 2.5-point favorite keeps the early-down rushing script alive, which is exactly where he gets his work.
• Tipping point: if Jacksonville plays it close and this becomes a grind, RB37 at 11.6 projected is a usable flex. If the model's expectation is a game that gets away like Kansas City did, he's off the field late — bench him for any back who catches passes.