David Montgomery or Deebo Samuel Sr.: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him RB21 at 12.7 PPR — inside the range you start as an RB2/flex in a 12-team league, and he carries no injury designation.
• The matchup grades 20 of 32 (softest = 32), a mild tilt in his favor, though the 0-game sample means it carries essentially no weight.
• Usage is the risk: 37% snaps and a 5% target share mean almost no PPR floor from receiving work — his points come on volume-limited carries and scores.
• A 1.5-point spread and 22.0 implied total point to a competitive, non-blowout script, which keeps him on the field but caps the ceiling; a bigger favorite line would make this an easy start.

The call

• Usage is the case for him: a 24% target share over 16 games with 72% snaps is genuine WR1-level volume for this offense, and in PPR that volume creates a real catch floor even on short throws.
• The projection disagrees — 8.9 points and a WR55 consensus rank put him behind most starting-caliber options in a 12-team league, so he's a flex play rather than a lineup lock.
• Matchup offers no edge: the Rams grade 21 of 32 in the DvP composite, and that number carries a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a reason to start.
• A 22.8 implied total with a 3.0 spread points to a competitive, moderate-scoring script. If you need ceiling, look elsewhere; if you need floor at flex, the target share plays.
• No injury designation, so the role is intact — the question is purely whether your bench has a higher-upside option.