Start Isaiah Likely over Dalton Schultz — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely’s matchup edge outweighs Schultz’s steadier role

Start Isaiah Likely, but this is a narrow edge rather than a comfortable TE call. His higher standing and projection reflect the softer Dallas matchup, a slightly stronger team scoring environment, and a bio that gives him real seam and red-zone upside. Schultz has the safer workload as Houston’s high-volume TE1, and his 71% snap share is the best argument for choosing him, but Buffalo’s elite tight-end defense limits that advantage. Likely’s actual risk is playing fewer snaps and seeing fewer designed opportunities, making his ceiling more attractive than his floor.

What flips it: A confirmed expansion of Likely’s snap and route role.

AI editor

Dalton Schultz

TE19HOUvs BUF

4.76.58.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely

TE12NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Dalton Schultz

Toss-Up

TE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.

Toss-up — TE19 by consensus and projection: BUF is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 19% target share in 2025.

Schultz’s every-down role and chain-moving reliability provide the steadier floor.
His target involvement is meaningful, but Buffalo’s tight-end defense can mute that volume.

Why Isaiah Likely

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE12 at 9.4 projected points with only a 59% snap share and 14% target share — a fine plug-in, but not a set-and-forget TE1.

Likely’s athletic seam role gives him more ways to turn a modest workload into a difference-making score.
The softer matchup and red-zone flexibility support the model’s narrow preference despite his lighter playing time.

The call

Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter/replacement boundary — he beats a streamer, but not by much.
The role is part-time: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means his ceiling depends on red-zone looks rather than volume.
Dallas grades 10 of 32 in the DvP composite (32 = softest), a tougher-than-average draw, though the 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence mean that number shouldn't move the needle much.
A 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied total point to a competitive, pass-neutral script — if your alternative is a sub-8-point TE, start Likely; if you have a locked-in every-down tight end, sit him.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dalton Schultz	Isaiah Likely
Projected points	4.76.58.4	5.67.59.4
Consensus rank	TE19	TE12
Opponent vs position	BUF · 3 of 320-game sample	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	1 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving Yards	2 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	6 of 32
Targets	1 of 32	9 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	5 of 32
Target share	19%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	23%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.0+1.5	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	71%(2025)	59%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up