Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
LaPorta's every-down role makes him the safer TE play over Kincaid
Start Sam LaPorta: his established every-down role gives him a much sturdier weekly floor than Dalton Kincaid's part-time usage. Detroit's stronger scoring environment and LaPorta's pass-catching role amplify that edge, while his clean Week 1 preparation removes the main concern. Kincaid has the more intriguing ceiling if Buffalo follows through on making him the lone tight end, but that remains a projection beyond his limited 2025 workload. The risk in this call is Detroit building a lead and shifting away from LaPorta late, though the volume gap is more important at tight end than a small projection difference.
What flips it: A confirmed full-time role for Kincaid before kickoff.
Sources: Sports Illustrated (Bills On SI) · Sep 9, 2026 · ESPN · Aug 21, 2026 · Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) · Sep 10, 2026 · Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) · Sep 6, 2026
AI editor
Dalton Kincaid
5.27.08.7 Projected Points
Sam LaPorta
6.58.711.0 Projected Points
Why Dalton Kincaid
Toss-Up· mediumTE1 in pass-catching role. Move tight end and seam mismatch, more receiver than blocker.
TE16 at 8.7 projected with just a 37% snap share — the 15% target share keeps him alive, but the role isn't big enough to trust over a top-12 TE.
- Buffalo lists Kincaid first when using one tight end, giving him real breakout paths if that package expands. [Sports Illustrated (Bills On SI) 2026-09-09]
- Allen's praise and Kincaid's practice impact point to upside beyond his 2025 usage. [ESPN 2026-08-21]
The call
- Consensus has him TE16 at 8.7 PPR points, which is right on the edge of the 12-team starting line — you're not gaining anything over a typical replacement TE.
- The usage is the problem: a 37% snap share across 12 games is part-time work, though a 15% target share says he's productive on the field he does see.
- Game environment is neutral at best — a 23.5 implied team total and a 1.5-point spread points to a tight, moderate-scoring game rather than the pass-volume shootout Kincaid needs.
- Tipping point: reports out of camp (ESPN, 2026-08-21) say Josh Allen wants him on the field more and that his 2025 snap and target averages understate his role. If he's playing near-full-time snaps this week, he moves to a clear start.
Latest on Kincaid
On the Bills' Week 1 depth chart, veteran Dawson Knox has been the TE1 in snap share over the past three seasons, but it is Dalton Kincaid who is listed as the first-team tight end when only one tight end is on the field.
Sports Illustrated (Bills On SI) · Sep 9, 2026Kincaid was the focal point of the Bills' passing game at the joint practice in Cleveland, including a 50-plus-yard catch from Josh Allen, after playing limited snaps for most of the 2025 season because of a left knee injury. Allen said the offense is better when Kincaid is on the field, indicating a larger snap and target role than his 2025 averages reflect.
ESPN · Aug 21, 2026Why Sam LaPorta
Start· highTE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Reliable seam and intermediate target when healthy.
TE8 with a 91% snap share and 17% target share in Detroit's 27.8-point implied offense — locked-in every-week starter.
- LaPorta's starting role is firmly established, supporting a dependable route and target floor. [Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) 2026-09-06]
- He enters Week 1 fully healthy after avoiding Detroit's injury report, removing the key availability worry. [Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) 2026-09-10]
The call
- Role is airtight: 91% snap share and a 17% target share as the listed starting tight end, with no injury designation anywhere on the report.
- Detroit's 27.8 implied total is among the week's highest, and a -7.0 spread points to a comfortable game script where LaPorta stays central to the red-zone passing plan.
- 11.0 projected points at TE8 clears the weekly bar at a position where replacement options rarely reach double digits.
- Only real risk is a blowout that shifts Detroit to the run late, which caps upside more than it threatens the floor.
Latest on LaPorta
LaPorta has not appeared on Detroit's injury report at all during Week 1 preparations, an encouraging sign that clears him to start the season fully healthy.
Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) · Sep 10, 2026LaPorta is listed as the starting tight end on Detroit's updated offensive depth chart ahead of the regular season.
Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) · Sep 6, 2026Lions starting safeties Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee), who will both miss the first four games of the season, are expected to return at some point, according to GM Brad Holmes
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Dalton Kincaid | Sam LaPorta |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.27.08.7 | 6.58.711.0 |
| Consensus rank | TE16 | TE8 |
| Opponent vs position | HOUno ranking yet | NOno ranking yet |
| Target share | 15%(2025) | 17%(2025) |
| Reception share | 16%(2025) | 19%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 23.5-1.5 | 27.8-7.0 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 37%(2025) | 91%(2025) |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Signal breakdown
- 8.7 vs 11.0 projected PPR pointsSam LaPorta +
- Rank 16 vs 8Sam LaPorta +
- Matchup (DvP composite)even
- Implied 23.5 vs 27.8 team pointsSam LaPorta +
- No injury designationseven
- 37% vs 91% snap shareSam LaPorta +
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