Dalton Kincaid or Quentin Johnston: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Kincaid's expanded role edges Johnston despite nearly identical projections

Kincaid gets the nod because his expanded pass-catching role sits inside the stronger scoring environment, while the projection gap is essentially noise. His TE1/seam role and 21% target share give Buffalo's offense more usable upside; SI.com (Bills On SI) 2026-09-15 reports that Joe Brady credited Kincaid's expanded role with opening up the run game. Johnston has the better raw snap and target workload, plus a favorable red-zone profile, so this is a narrow call rather than a comfortable one. The risk is that Kincaid's Week 1 usage proves to be a one-game spike while Johnston's WR2 deployment holds.

What flips it: A confirmed pullback from Kincaid's expanded receiving role before kickoff.

Sources: SI.com (Bills On SI) · Sep 15, 2026

AI editor

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid

TE16BUFvs DET

Projected Points

Start· medium
Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston

WR47LACvs LV

Projected Points

Start· medium

Dalton Kincaid’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-167 / +130
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 51.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+175
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Quentin Johnston’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+180
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DET@
BUFThu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
LV@
LACSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Dalton Kincaid

Start· medium

TE1 in pass-catching role. Move tight end and seam mismatch, more receiver than blocker.

21% target share on a 72% snap workload in a 27.8-point implied offense, plus a bottom-four DvP matchup — Kincaid is a clear TE1 play.

  • His expanded role is helping Buffalo's entire offense, not merely adding nominal receiving snaps.
  • The TE1/seam profile gives Kincaid more ways to convert Buffalo's strong scoring outlook.

The call

  • Role is locked in: 42 of 58 snaps (about 75%) in Week 1 and a 21% target share, a sharp jump from his 26.8%-38% snap share in 2025 per Bills On SI.
  • Buffalo's 27.8 implied total as a 3-point favorite means volume of scoring plays and red-zone looks for a tight end who's now a featured pass-catcher.
  • Detroit grades 29 of 32 in DvP vs tight ends, though that's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence — treat it as a mild tailwind, not the main case.
  • Risk is target concentration: 9.8 projected points and TE16 consensus reflect that Buffalo spreads the ball, so a quiet 3-target game is on the table.

Latest on Kincaid

Role

Kincaid led Buffalo's tight ends in Week 1 with 42 of 58 offensive snaps (about 75%), a sharp jump from his 26.8%-38% snap share in 2025, as Joe Brady credited him for opening up the run game and other pass-catchers.

SI.com (Bills On SI) · Sep 15, 2026

Why Quentin Johnston

Start· medium

Starting outside WR2. Big-bodied contested-catch target with red-zone scoring production.

22% target share on 78% of snaps as the WR2 in a 25.5-point implied offense — flex-worthy volume even at a WR47 tag.

  • Johnston's big-bodied red-zone role gives him a direct touchdown path if the Chargers control the game.
  • His higher workload makes him the safer choice if Kincaid's role retreats toward last year's usage.

The call

  • Role is locked in: 78% snap share and a 22% target share out of the WR-2 slot, with no injury designation muddying the workload.
  • The Chargers' 25.5 implied total and -8.5 spread point to a scoring day with red-zone looks available for the outside receivers.
  • Risk is the matchup — Las Vegas grades 11 of 32 in DvP composite vs WR, though that's off a single game with 0.00 confidence, so don't over-weight it.
  • At 10.2 projected he's a flex play, not a set-and-forget WR3; if you have a WR with a softer matchup and similar target share, that tips the other way.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDalton KincaidQuentin Johnston
Projected points
Consensus rankTE16WR47
Opponent vs positionDET · 29 of 321-game sampleLV · 11 of 321-game sample
Receptions26 of 328 of 32
Receiving Yards26 of 3223 of 32
Receiving TDs30 of 321 of 32
Targets32 of 3222 of 32
Anytime TD30 of 321 of 32
Target share21%22%
Reception share25%12%
Implied total · spread27.8-3.025.5-8.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share72%78%
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–1

Recent form

Dalton Kincaid — last 1 week

Week 1vs HOU

Quentin Johnston — last 1 week

Week 1vs ARI

Signal breakdown

  • 9.8 vs 10.0 projected PPR pointsQuentin Johnston +
  • Rank 16 vs 47Dalton Kincaid +
  • Opponent DvP rank 29 vs 11 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 27.8 vs 25.5 team pointsDalton Kincaid +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 72% vs 78% snap shareQuentin Johnston +

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