Christian Watson or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Likely's expanded slot role gives him the edge over Watson

Start Isaiah Likely in PPR and half-PPR formats. Watson has the higher raw projection and a better snap rate, but that small edge is less important than Likely's TE14 value and a role that could expand beyond traditional tight-end usage. Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) 2026-09-02 reports the Giants may use Likely as a big slot receiver, while Watson's vertical role brings more week-winning upside but also greater dependence on deep-shot efficiency. The call is narrow: Likely's risk is that a healthy Giants receiver group keeps him near his ordinary workload.

What flips it: Malik Nabers being fully ready and Likely staying in a conventional tight-end role.

Sources: Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Christian Watson

Christian Watson

WR34GBvs MIN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium

Christian Watson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-162 / +127
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 56.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+195
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-101 / -126
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 37.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+360
Anytime Touchdown Props →
GB@
MINSun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Christian Watson

Toss-Up· medium

Starting outside WR and vertical field-stretcher. Rare speed-size combination; extensive injury history caps availability.

WR34 with a real 20% target share, but 10.9 projected points in a 23.0-point offense keeps him a borderline flex against MIN.

  • Watson's speed-size profile creates the stronger spike-week path if Green Bay connects on downfield plays.
  • His extensive injury history remains the concern even with no current designation.

The call

  • A 20% target share on 68% of the snaps is a legitimate every-week role — he's the featured perimeter target, not a rotational piece, and there's no injury designation to manage.
  • The projection is the problem: 10.9 points and a WR34 consensus rank put him right on the flex bubble in a 12-team PPR, where three-WR lineups run out around WR36.
  • A 1.5-point spread and 23.0 implied total point to a tight, competitive game rather than a pass-heavy shootout, which caps the volume ceiling.
  • Tip it to start if your alternative is a sub-10-point projection or you need the big-play upside; sit him if you have a safer, higher-floor target-volume WR.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE14 with a 9.5-point projection, 59% snaps and a 14% target share in a near-pick'em game — startable volume at a thin position.

  • The possible big-slot deployment can turn modest tight-end volume into receiver-like involvement.
  • Likely's red-zone mismatch ability gives his expanded route role a direct scoring path.

The call

  • 9.5 projected PPR points is a real TE1-fringe number; at a position where the back half of starting lineups routinely lives on 6-7 points, TE14 with this projection clears the replacement bar.
  • Role is stable and healthy: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games, no injury designation, and he sits atop the TE depth slot.
  • Game script cooperates — a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive, two-way passing game rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout in either direction.
  • The one sourced line describes a Giants 'big slot' plan and doesn't square with this matchup, so it's unverified noise — the call rests on the snap/target profile, not that report.

Latest on Likely

Scheme

With only five wide receivers on the projected depth chart, the Giants plan to deploy tight end Isaiah Likely as a 'big slot receiver' to offset a possible shortage if Malik Nabers isn't fully ready for Week 1.

Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricChristian WatsonIsaiah Likely
Projected points
Consensus rankWR34TE14
Opponent vs positionMINno ranking yetDALno ranking yet
Target share20%(2025)14%(2025)
Reception share18%(2025)15%(2025)
Implied total · spread23.0-1.523.5+1.5
Depth chartWR1TE1
Snap share68%(2025)59%(2025)
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Signal breakdown

  • 10.9 vs 9.5 projected PPR pointsChristian Watson +
  • Rank 34 vs 14Isaiah Likely +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 23.0 vs 23.5 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 68% vs 59% snap shareChristian Watson +

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