Start Chig Okonkwo over Tyler Allgeier — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Same Projection, Different Paths: Okonkwo's Volume Trumps Allgeier's Touches

Chig Okonkwo doesn't need to solve Philadelphia's tough tight-end defense to matter this week — he just needs his usual role, and a 64% snap share with a 15% target share gives him that even against a stingy matchup. Tyler Allgeier's outlook is capped by role, not opponent: a 3% target share and 30% snaps make him a complementary short-yardage back on a team favored to trail by double digits. The identical 6.8 projection hides very different paths to it — Okonkwo can get there through a couple of catches, while Allgeier likely needs a specific goal-line script to hit his number. The tighter Washington spread also means more competitive snaps for Okonkwo, while Arizona's 11.5-point deficit threatens Allgeier's touches outright.

What flips it: A goal-line role expansion for Allgeier, or a run-heavy Washington script that trims Okonkwo's targets.

AI editor

Chig Okonkwo

TE22WSHvs PHI

3.85.36.8 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Tyler Allgeier

RB48ARIvs LAC

5.46.16.8 Projected Points

Sit

Why Chig Okonkwo

Toss-Up

Move TE in pass-catching role. Athletic mismatch piece used as a seam-stretcher and flex.

Toss-up — TE22 consensus, projects TE26 this week: PHI is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 15% target share in 2025.

His seam-stretching role means the matchup rank matters less than the fact he's on the field 64% of snaps regardless.
A near-even spread keeps Washington in throwing downs longer, which is where his catches come from.

Why Tyler Allgeier

Sit

Backup RB with downhill power style. Veteran rotational piece in complementary/short-yardage role.

Sit — RB48 consensus, projects RB47 this week: LAC is the 8th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

Downhill, short-yardage touches give him a real if situational path to a score if Arizona reaches the red zone.
His near-zero target share means garbage time — likely given the spread — does nothing for his floor.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chig Okonkwo	Tyler Allgeier
Projected points	3.85.36.8	5.46.16.8
Consensus rank	TE22	RB48
Opponent vs position	PHI · 2 of 320-game sample	LAC · 8 of 320-game sample
Receptions	2 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving Yards	1 of 32	7 of 32
Receiving TDs	1 of 32	—
Targets	6 of 32	—
Anytime TD	1 of 32	6 of 32
Rushing Yards	—	9 of 32
Rushing TDs	—	12 of 32
Rushing Attempts	—	6 of 32
Target share	15%(2025)	3%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	4%(2025)
Implied total · spread	20.5+5.5	17.0+11.5
Depth chart	TE1	RB2
Snap share	64%(2025)	30%(2025)