Caleb Williams or Malik Willis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Williams: his rushing creates the separation Willis can't match

Start Caleb Williams: Chicago's stronger scoring environment and Williams' rushing involvement give him more ways to beat this matchup. His Week 1 blend of passing production and two rushing touchdowns showed that his ceiling is not dependent on a clean pocket (ChicagoBears.com 2026-09-14). Willis has real designed-run value, but five sacks in his Dolphins debut raise the risk that San Francisco pressure drains his already modest outlook (ESPN 2026-09-14).

What flips it: A late Williams availability downgrade.

Sources: ChicagoBears.com · Sep 14, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams

QB10CHIvs MIN

Projected Points

Start· high
Malik Willis

Malik Willis

QB21MIAvs SF

Projected Points

Sit

Caleb Williams’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 225.5
-114 / -114
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-128 / +100
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
+113 / -144
Interceptions Thrown Props →

Malik Willis’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 184.5
-114 / -114
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 0.5
-162 / +122
Passing Touchdowns Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 35.5
-115 / -115
Rushing Yards Props →
MIN@
CHISun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
SFSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Caleb Williams

Start· high

Franchise starting QB. Dual-threat playmaker with elite arm talent, off-platform creativity and 3,900-yard passing volume.

QB10 at 19.3 projected with a 24.5 implied total, and Williams opened with 269 yards, 2 TDs and 65 rushing yards in a 59-point outburst.

  • His rushing role gives him a second scoring path when passing efficiency wavers.
  • Chicago’s offense showed explosive upside immediately, supporting confidence in Williams’ aggressive playmaking.

The call

  • Consensus QB10 at 19.3 projected points is a clear every-week starter in a 12-team league — no designation, locked into the QB job.
  • Week 1 line (21-of-29, 269 yards, 2 passing TDs, 65 rushing yards, two rushing scores, 124.1 rating) shows the rushing floor that separates him from pocket-only QB2s.
  • Vegas backs it: 24.5 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite means Chicago is expected to play from ahead with scoring chances.
  • The only soft spot is the matchup — Minnesota rates 20 of 32 vs QBs on a one-game sample with zero confidence, so effectively neutral rather than a reason to bench.

Latest on Williams

Role

Williams completed 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns and added 65 rushing yards with two more scores in the Week 1 win, posting a 124.1 passer rating.

ChicagoBears.com · Sep 14, 2026
Bears' offense makes statement with 'amazing' 59-point opener

The Bears walked away from their opener with a historic 59-37 win over the Panthers, one that saw them score the fourth-most points in a game in franchise history and saw the teams combine for 96 points, most ever in a season opener.

ESPN · Sep 13, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Malik Willis

Sit

Starting QB with dual-threat mobility. Strong arm and designed-run value; a career backup signed in free agency to take over the job.

Sit — bench-tier QB at consensus QB21: SF is the 7th-toughest matchup vs QBs, 18.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

  • Willis can manufacture points with designed runs if Miami falls behind early.
  • His strong arm offers spike-week potential if he avoids the pressure that hurt his debut.

Latest on Willis

QB Malik Willis takes blame for five-sack Dolphins debut

Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley said Willis still has his 'total confidence and faith' after a rough debut for Miami.

ESPN · Sep 14, 2026
How did Malik Willis fare in his Dolphins' debut?

Marcel Louis-Jacques breaks down QB Malik Willis' debut with the Dolphins in Week 1.

VideoESPN · Sep 14, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCaleb WilliamsMalik Willis
Projected points
Consensus rankQB10QB21
Opponent vs positionMIN · 20 of 321-game sampleSF · 7 of 321-game sample
Passing Yards31 of 328 of 32
Passing TDs17 of 321 of 32
Passing Completions18 of 327 of 32
Passing Attempts31 of 3212 of 32
Interceptions5 of 325 of 32
Implied total · spread24.5-3.518.0+10.5
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share100%100%
Start/Sit record1–0—

Recent form

Caleb Williams — last 1 week

Week 1vs CAR

Malik Willis — last 1 week

Week 1vs LV

Signal breakdown

  • 19.3 vs 14.1 projected PPR pointsCaleb Williams +
  • Rank 10 vs 21Caleb Williams +
  • Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 7 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 24.5 vs 18.0 team pointsCaleb Williams +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 100% vs 100% snap shareeven

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