Start Mark Andrews over Brenton Strange — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews’ red-zone role gives him the edge over Strange

Andrews brings the clearer touchdown path: his red-zone mismatch profile and stronger Baltimore scoring environment outweigh Strange’s snap-share advantage. The projection gap is modest, but at tight end it represents meaningful separation, making Andrews the better play while both remain starts. Strange’s ascending seam role and heavier workload are real advantages; the risk is that Andrews’ reduced snaps limit his route volume.

What flips it: Strange maintaining his workload while Andrews loses red-zone involvement.

AI editor

Brenton Strange

TE21JAXvs CLE

4.96.58.1 Projected Points

Start

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Brenton Strange

Start

Starting TE and ascending pass-catcher. Athletic seam target with adequate in-line blocking.

Start — TE21 by consensus and projection: CLE is the 9th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 24.0 implied team total.

Strange’s heavier workload gives him a sturdier floor if Jacksonville sustains its favorable game script.
His ascending seam role offers a path to beat the projection without needing a touchdown.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

Andrews’ red-zone mismatch role converts Baltimore’s stronger scoring outlook into superior touchdown equity.
Quarterback rapport gives him a reliable path to high-value targets even with fewer total snaps.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Brenton Strange	Mark Andrews
Projected points	4.96.58.1	6.68.410.1
Consensus rank	TE21	TE11
Opponent vs position	CLE · 9 of 320-game sample	IND · 20 of 320-game sample
Receptions	10 of 32	25 of 32
Receiving Yards	15 of 32	31 of 32
Receiving TDs	1 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	13 of 32	24 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	16%(2025)	17%(2025)
Reception share	19%(2025)	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	26.5-3.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	75%(2025)	62%(2025)