Ashton Jeanty or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Jeanty: feature-back volume edges Likely’s intriguing big-slot path

Start Ashton Jeanty: his feature-back workload gives this narrow call more substance than the raw projection gap suggests, especially in PPR. The ankle is the real risk, but his return to practice and optimistic Week 1 outlook support treating the questionable tag as manageable (ESPN 2026-09-09). Likely has a credible route-volume path as New York’s big-slot option, but his reduced role and difficult Dallas matchup leave less margin at a replacement-level tight end spot.

What flips it: A setback in Jeanty’s ankle recovery before kickoff.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 9, 2026 · Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

AI editor

Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty

RB9LVvs MIA

Projected Points

Start
Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE12NYGvs DAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Ashton Jeanty

Start

RB1 and feature back. Elite contact balance and tackle-breaking power with legitimate three-down receiving role and heavy volume.

Start — every-week RB start at consensus RB9: MIA is the 10th-softest matchup vs RBs, 15% target share in 2025.

  • His practice return keeps the every-down role in play despite the questionable tag. (ESPN 2026-09-09)
  • A run-oriented plan supports Jeanty’s floor even if Miami limits efficiency. (ESPN 2026-09-09)

Latest on Jeanty

Status

Ashton Jeanty returned to practice Wednesday after missing time with an ankle injury and is viewed optimistically for Week 1 availability.

Raiders' Jeanty returns to practice after two-week absenceESPN · Sep 9, 2026
Role

Jeanty is working his way back from a recent injury heading into Week 1, putting the Raiders' running back depth to an early test.

SI.com (Raiders on SI) · Sep 5, 2026
Scheme

The Raiders want Ashton Jeanty to be part of a heavily run-oriented backfield alongside rookie Mike Washington Jr.

Raiders' Jeanty returns to practice after two-week absenceESPN · Sep 9, 2026
Raiders GM says Ashton Jeanty in 'good spot' with recovery

Vegas RB Ashton Jeanty's status for Week 1 is still uncertain but GM John Spytek said the second-year player is in a "good spot" in his recovery.

ESPN · Sep 1, 2026
Biggest decisions facing the Raiders ahead of roster cutdown deadline

We answer the five biggest questions the Raiders are facing ahead of cutdown day.

ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Isaiah Likely

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE12 at 9.4 projected is exactly replacement level — a 14% target share and tough DAL matchup (10 of 32) cap the ceiling, but big-slot usage is the tiebreaker.

  • Big-slot usage could raise Likely’s route quality if New York’s receiver depth stays thin. (Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) 2026-09-02)
  • His red-zone mismatch ability gives Likely a path to beat the modest projection on limited volume.

The call

  • Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, literally the last starting tight end in a 12-team league — no margin over a typical waiver TE.
  • Role is real but not dominant: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he needs volume or a red-zone look to clear his projection.
  • Matchup leans the wrong way — Dallas grades 10 of 32 on the DvP composite (32 = softest), though the 0-game sample means low confidence in that read.
  • Reported plan to use him as a 'big slot receiver' with only five wide receivers available is the tipping point: if that materializes and Nabers is limited, his target share jumps and he becomes a start; if he's back to a standard TE snap count, sit him.

Latest on Likely

Scheme

With only five wide receivers on the projected depth chart, the Giants plan to deploy tight end Isaiah Likely as a 'big slot receiver' to offset a possible shortage if Malik Nabers isn't fully ready for Week 1.

Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricAshton JeantyIsaiah Likely
Projected points
Consensus rankRB9TE12
Opponent vs positionMIA · 23 of 320-game sampleDAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards26 of 32—
Rushing TDs19 of 32—
Rushing Attempts21 of 32—
Receptions26 of 3216 of 32
Receiving Yards25 of 3216 of 32
Anytime TD23 of 325 of 32
Receiving TDs—6 of 32
Targets—9 of 32
Target share15%(2025)14%(2025)
Reception share16%(2025)15%(2025)
Implied total · spread22.3-3.023.5+1.5
Depth chartRB1TE1
Snap share78%(2025)59%(2025)
Injury designationQuestionable—
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Signal breakdown

  • 18.1 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsAshton Jeanty +
  • Rank 9 vs 12Ashton Jeanty +
  • Opponent DvP rank 23 vs 10 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 22.3 vs 23.5 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Questionable vs no designationIsaiah Likely +
  • 78% vs 59% snap shareAshton Jeanty +

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