Aaron Jones Sr. or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Yahoo's depth-chart reporting frames Jones and Jordan Mason as 1a/1b co-starters, with Mason possibly getting extra early-down work — that's a hard cap on Jones' touch ceiling and the reason a 55% snap share overstates his lead-back value.
• The 12% target share is the saving grace in PPR; receiving work travels regardless of who gets the goal-line carries, and a 1.5-point spread means no game script that buries him.
• Matchup is dead neutral (17 of 32 DvP, and on a zero-game sample with no confidence behind it) and the 21.5 implied team total is middling — nothing here elevates him above his RB34 consensus rank.
• Tip it to start if Mason is downgraded or you need the PPR floor at flex; tip it to sit if you have any every-down back or a pass-catching option with a better implied total on your bench.

The call

• Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter cutoff: fine if your alternative is a waiver dart, benchable if you have a locked-in top-10 option.
• Role is real but not dominant — 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he's on the field for most passing downs without commanding a true focal-point workload.
• The DvP composite of 10 of 32 grades this as a tougher-than-average draw, but with a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence there's nothing to actually lean on either way.
• Game script is neutral-to-helpful: a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive game with enough volume to reach his projection, which is what tips him in if he's your best available body.