Aaron Jones Sr. or David Montgomery: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him RB33 at 10.3 PPR points, which is exactly the flex line in a 12-team league — startable in a pinch, not a set-and-forget play.
• The backfield is the problem: Yahoo describes Jones and Jordan Mason as a true 1a/1b tandem, and the 55% snap share backs that up, so touchdown equity is shared.
• His 12% target share is the saving grace in PPR — receptions give him a functional floor even if the ground work gets split.
• Matchup and script are both neutral: DvP composite 17 of 32 on a zero-game sample, a 21.5 implied total and a 1.5-point spread. If your alternative is a clear No. 1 back or a WR with a real matchup edge, sit Jones; if you need volume with a pass-game role, he plays.

The call

• Montgomery is the classic committee back: 37% snap share and a 5% target share mean his fantasy day lives on goal-line carries, not volume or PPR receiving floor.
• The matchup is neutral at best — Buffalo grades 20 of 32 in defense-vs-RB composite, and that composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no real edge to lean on.
• Game script is workable with a 1.5-point spread, but a 22.0 implied team total caps the scoring chances he needs to hit his RB21 projection.
• Tipping point: if he's the clear short-yardage/red-zone hammer he's a fine flex; if the split stays even and Houston trails, he's a 8-9 point back.