Mark Andrews or Tyler Warren: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews brings the safer floor; Warren brings the higher-upside challenge

Andrews is the steadier start: Baltimore's stronger scoring environment and his red-zone role offset a lighter weekly workload. Warren's superior volume and consensus standing create the better ceiling, but his questionable tag and a difficult Baltimore matchup make that edge less secure. His practice involvement supports the receiving role [colts.com 2026-08-11], while Andrews' clean availability matters in a close call. The real risk is Warren converting his advantage in routes and targets into another efficient outing before kickoff.

What flips it: A pregame clearance for Warren with no workload concern.

Sources: colts.com · Aug 11, 2026

AI editor

In standard and half-PPR scoring this flips to Andrews.

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Tyler Warren

TE4INDvs BAL

7.39.812.2 Projected Points

Sit

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

Baltimore’s favored script gives Andrews more chances to cash in on his red-zone mismatch role.
His clean availability removes the pregame uncertainty attached to Warren.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Why Tyler Warren

Sit

TE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.

Sit — TE4 consensus, projects TE3 this week: BAL is the 5th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 21% target share in 2025.

Warren’s move-piece role gives him more ways to score than a standard tight-end target profile.
Practice usage supports confidence that his high-volume role remains intact [colts.com 2026-08-11].

Latest on Warren

Role

Tyler Warren was a frequent target in practice, catching three passes from Daniel Jones during the first-team offense's late-game scenario.

Training Camp Notebook: Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren shine as joint practice with Patriots ends on a high note colts.com · Aug 11, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mark Andrews	Tyler Warren
Projected points	6.68.410.1	7.39.812.2
Consensus rank	TE11	TE4
Opponent vs position	IND · 20 of 3217-game sample	BAL · 5 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	25 of 32	7 of 32
Receiving Yards	31 of 32	9 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	17%(2025)	21%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.5-3.5	23.0+3.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	62%(2025)	84%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q