Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews' scoring path vs. Kraft's every-down role — a genuine split decision at TE

Andrews gets to work in a offense expected to score more, and Baltimore's red-zone habits have always found him near the goal line regardless of how many routes he actually runs. Kraft's case is built on sheer opportunity — he's playing nearly every snap and pulling targets at a rate that would be elite volume at any offense, which is why his consensus rank sits well ahead of Andrews' despite similar point projections. The gap that looks small on paper (roughly half a point) is really a philosophical choice between betting on touchdown equity in a stronger game script or betting on a bigger, safer floor. Kraft's questionable tag is the only real threat to that floor.

What flips it: A setback in Kraft's pregame injury report tips this clearly to Andrews.

AI editor

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Tucker Kraft

TE8GBvs MIN

6.38.410.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

Starting TE and red-zone weapon. Pass-catching seam threat with long-standing rapport with the franchise QB.

Baltimore's 26.5 implied total and Andrews' 17% target share make him a volume-plus-touchdown play, even with a TE15 consensus tag.

Baltimore's plus matchup and higher implied total lean into Andrews' identity as a red-zone seam threat, not just a possession target.
A clean injury report removes a variable Kraft is still carrying into game day.

The call

A 26.5 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite is a top-tier scoring environment, and Andrews remains the primary red-zone target in this passing game.
A 17% target share on a 62% snap share is a locked-in, pass-heavy role — that's genuine TE1 usage even if he's off the field on some run-heavy snaps.
No injury designation, so the full route load is on the table.
The risk is the TE15 consensus rank and 10.1 projection: this is a touchdown-dependent floor, so a script where Baltimore leans on the run would cap him near single digits.

Why Tucker Kraft

Start· medium

Starting TE and primary mismatch threat. Powerful Y-tight end with run-after-catch ability and red-zone production.

TE8 with an 86% snap share and 20% target share — a top-tier role for the position. Start if he clears the questionable tag.

His snap share and target share are both meaningfully ahead of Andrews', meaning volume alone gives him a higher weekly floor.
Green Bay's tighter game script barely dents him — he's a north-south mismatch piece who produces regardless of scoreboard pace.

The call

The usage is elite for a tight end: 86% of snaps and a 20% target share over eight games means he's effectively a full-time receiving option, not a rotational blocker.
A 10.5-point projection and TE8 consensus rank puts him comfortably above the streaming pool in a 12-team PPR league — you're not finding that on the wire.
Game script is neutral-to-favorable: Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a 23.0 implied team total, so there's no blowout risk pushing him off the field or into pure run-blocking.
The one real risk is the questionable designation. Confirm he's active before kickoff; if he's downgraded or shows up on a snap count, pivot to a healthy streamer.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mark Andrews	Tucker Kraft
Projected points	6.68.410.1	6.38.410.5
Consensus rank	TE15	TE8
Opponent vs position	INDno ranking yet	MINno ranking yet
Target share	17%(2025)	20%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.5-3.5	23.0-1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	62%(2025)	86%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q