Start Mark Andrews over Stefon Diggs — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews' red-zone role in a likely win trumps Diggs' target share in a likely loss

The points gap between these two is basically nothing, but the roles behind those numbers aren't. Andrews sits inside a Ravens offense expected to win comfortably, which is exactly the script that turns a seam-red-zone tight end into a scoring threat near the goal line. Diggs actually out-targets Andrews on a rate basis, but he's the WR2 on a team expected to trail, and that implied total caps how many possessions Washington gets to feed him. The DvP matchup numbers for both are built on zero-game samples this year, so don't read either as a real edge — the call rests on role and game script, not schedule.

What flips it: If Washington's implied total climbs closer to Baltimore's or Andrews sees a real dip below his 62% snap share, the gap closes fast.

AI editor

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Stefon Diggs

WR38WSHvs PHI

5.37.59.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

Starting TE and red-zone weapon. Pass-catching seam threat with long-standing rapport with the franchise QB.

Healthy, no designation, 17% target share on a team with a 26.5 implied total — Andrews' red-zone role plays up in a projected 3.5-point win.

Seam-and-red-zone role means his production concentrates near the end zone, which matters most when his team is favored to score often.
No practice designation and a full-time starting role removes the workload risk that trips up touchdown-dependent tight ends.

The call

Availability is clean (no designation) and the role is locked: 62% snap share with a 17% target share is starter-level volume at a position where most streamers see single-digit target shares.
A 26.5 implied team total and a -3.5 spread point to a positive-but-competitive script — enough scoring to feed touchdown equity without a run-out clock blowout that erases pass volume.
The 20-of-32 DvP composite is middling-to-soft, but it comes off a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so lean on the role and game environment rather than the matchup grade.
Risk is the ceiling: 10.1 projected points and a TE15 consensus rank make him a floor play, not a difference-maker — if you have a top-8 TE alternative, use it.

Why Stefon Diggs

Toss-Up

Toss-up — WR38 consensus, projects WR44 this week: PHI is the 10th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 21% target share in 2025.

Higher target share than Andrews signals he's the focal point of Washington's passing game, not a complementary piece.
An underdog script can still produce garbage-time volume if Washington falls behind and starts throwing to keep pace.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mark Andrews	Stefon Diggs
Projected points	6.68.410.1	5.37.59.7
Consensus rank	TE15	WR38
Opponent vs position	IND · 20 of 320-game sample	PHI · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	25 of 32	10 of 32
Receiving Yards	31 of 32	15 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	23 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	17%(2025)	21%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	24%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.5-3.5	20.5+5.5
Depth chart	TE1	WR2
Snap share	62%(2025)	54%(2025)