Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Usage is the sticking point: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he needs volume spikes or red-zone looks to clear his 9.4 projection.
• Consensus TE14 puts him right on the 12-team starter line — startable if your alternative is a sub-8-point streamer, benchable if you have a top-12 option.
• Game script is neutral-to-favorable: a 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive game with normal passing volume rather than a run-out-the-clock script.
• No injury designation, so the role is intact — a bump in target share or an early touchdown script is what tips this to a confident start.

The call

• Usage is the case: 78% snap share and a 16% target share over 15 games is genuine TE1-level involvement, not a matchup-dependent role.
• Game script cooperates — a 1.5-point spread and 21.5 implied team total means no run-out-the-clock scenario and plenty of neutral-down passing volume.
• The TE18 consensus tag undersells the target floor; at this position, guaranteed looks beat speculative upside from a replacement-level streamer.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor — without a red-zone spike he's a 7-10 point play, so leave him in only if your alternative lacks a defined role.