Start Garrett Wilson over Jordan Addison — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Wilson — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Garrett Wilson projects 14.8 to Addison's 9.9 and is the higher consensus play (WR12 to WR44). Addison's edge is the game script, 21.5 implied points to 18.3. The gap is wide.

Garrett Wilson

WR12NYJvs TEN

8.911.814.8 Projected Points

Start

Jordan Addison

WR44MINvs GB

6.48.29.9 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Garrett Wilson

Start

WR1 and alpha target. Elite separation quickness and contested-catch skill; missed time cut his sample last season.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR12: TEN is the 10th-softest matchup vs WRs, 18.3 implied team total caps the ceiling.

TEN ranks 23 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 18.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 87% snap share in 2025.

Why Jordan Addison

Toss-Up· medium

WR2 and vertical field-stretcher. Slight-framed separator with deep-ball tracking and red-zone production.

85% snaps and a 21% target share give a real floor, but 9.9 projected points and a WR45 tag make him a pure replacement-level flex vs GB.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
GB ranks 17 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.

The call

The role is not the problem: 85% snap share and a 21% target share over 14 games make Addison a locked-in WR2 who gets fed regardless of script.
The matchup is neutral at best — Green Bay grades 17 of 32 in the DvP composite, and that number carries a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no edge to bank on.
A 21.5 implied team total with a 1.5-point spread points to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough passing volume to matter, not enough to project a spike week.
Tiebreaker: start him if your alternative is a sub-15% target-share flyer; sit him if you have a WR attached to a higher implied total or a genuinely soft coverage matchup.

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Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Garrett Wilson	Jordan Addison
Projected points	8.911.814.8	6.48.29.9
Consensus rank	WR12	WR44
Opponent vs position	TEN · 23 of 3217-game sample	GB · 17 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	25 of 32	14 of 32
Receiving Yards	29 of 32	14 of 32
Receiving TDs	27 of 32	27 of 32
Targets	13 of 32	10 of 32
Anytime TD	22 of 32	22 of 32
Target share	30%(2025)	21%(2025)
Reception share	29%(2025)	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	18.3+3.0	21.5+1.5
Depth chart	WR1	WR2
Snap share	87%(2025)	85%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up