Drake Maye or Jaxson Dart: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart grade out even this week. Maye's best edge is the consensus rank (QB4 to QB9), Dart's best edge is the projection (18.5 to 16.2) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Drake Maye

QB4NEvs SEA

16.216.216.2 Projected Points

Sit

Jaxson Dart

QB9NYGvs DAL

18.518.518.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Drake Maye

Sit

Starting QB and franchise cornerstone. Big-armed dual-threat with rushing upside and full-season starter workload.

Sit — QB4 consensus, projects QB15 this week: 96% snap share in 2025, 16.2 PPR projected vs SEA.

SEA ranks 15 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.5 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 96% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Maye

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Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Jaxson Dart

Start· medium

Starting QB and franchise centerpiece. Dual-threat passer with live arm and designed-run package coming off a record-setting rookie rushing-TD season.

QB9 projection (18.5) with a bottom-five defense-vs-QB matchup in Dallas and a 23.5 implied team total — Dart is a clear starter.

DAL ranks 28 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 84% snap share in 2025.

The call

The Cowboys grade 28 of 32 in defense-vs-QB composite (softest end of the scale), giving Dart a friendly platform even if the sample confidence is still 0.00 this early.
18.5 projected points and a QB9 consensus rank mean he's ahead of the typical 12-team replacement arm without needing a ceiling game.
A 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive script — Dart should be throwing in a close game rather than sitting on a lead.
Risk is the thin matchup data behind that DvP number, so the floor is less certain than the rank suggests; he's a start on volume and script, not a set-and-forget elite play.

Latest on Dart

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ESPN · Sep 1, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Drake Maye	Jaxson Dart
Projected points	16.216.216.2	18.518.518.5
Consensus rank	QB4	QB9
Opponent vs position	SEA · 15 of 320-game sample	DAL · 28 of 320-game sample
Passing Yards	12 of 32	32 of 32
Passing TDs	7 of 32	31 of 32
Passing Completions	23 of 32	27 of 32
Passing Attempts	28 of 32	22 of 32
Interceptions	3 of 32	28 of 32
Implied total · spread	20.5+3.5	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	QB1	QB1
Snap share	96%(2025)	84%(2025)