Start Isaiah Likely over De'Zhaun Stribling — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely's role edge outweighs Stribling's shaky Thursday status

Points don't separate these two, but roles do. Stribling is a WR3 in a offense carrying his own questionable tag into the week, which caps both his target competition and his margin for error if he's limited. Likely's seam-stretching role gets him on the field on a majority of snaps and cashes in that time with real target volume, the kind of week-to-week floor a WR50 buried on a depth chart can't match. The Rams matchup number and Dallas number both carry zero-game samples, so lean on usage, and usage says take the tight end.

What flips it: A clean practice report clearing Stribling's questionable tag with an uptick in his route share would tighten this considerably.

AI editor

De'Zhaun Stribling

WR50SFvs LAR

6.37.99.6 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why De'Zhaun Stribling

Toss-Up

Toss-up — WR50 consensus, projects WR47 this week: Questionable on the latest report, 9.6 PPR projected vs LAR.

If he clears his questionable tag fully, SF's game script near a short spread could funnel him early-down looks as a change-of-pace option.
He still offers spike-week upside as a boundary option if San Francisco's top two wideouts draw extra coverage.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Receiving TE with mismatch traits. Vertical seam-stretcher used in flex alignments more than as an in-line blocker.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

His flex alignment usage means he's not just a red-zone specialist — he sees vertical routes that create real weekly target equity.
Even in a middling total game, his snap rate keeps him on the field for garbage-time and check-down volume that WR3s rarely get.

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	De'Zhaun Stribling	Isaiah Likely
Projected points	6.37.99.6	5.67.59.4
Consensus rank	WR50	TE14
Opponent vs position	LAR · 21 of 320-game sample	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	23 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving Yards	23 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	6 of 32
Targets	27 of 32	9 of 32
Anytime TD	18 of 32	5 of 32
Target share	—	14%(2025)
Reception share	—	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	WR3	TE1
Snap share	—	59%(2025)
Injury designation	Q	—