DeVonta Smith or Tee Higgins: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Smith's route volume edges out Higgins' scoring efficiency in a close WR2 battle

Smith wins this because of what he does on early downs, not what the projection says: a 24% target share makes him Philadelphia's clear No. 2 read, and that kind of touch volume is stickier week to week than Higgins' more boom-or-bust role. Higgins plays in a slightly better scoring environment and can hurt you in the red zone on any given Sunday, but he's the classic complement piece — dependent on Burrow finding him downfield or in the end zone rather than getting fed by design. The rank gap looks bigger than it is; both are weekly starters, but Smith's route-runner profile gives him a higher floor. The real risk in backing Smith is game-script — Washington could keep this closer than the spread suggests, capping his ceiling even with the extra touches.

What flips it: A Bengals game plan that funnels more early-down targets to Higgins over Chase.

AI editor

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith

WR15PHIvs WSH

Projected Points

Start
Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins

WR20CINvs TB

Projected Points

Start· high

Why DeVonta Smith

Start

WR2 and primary route technician. Slender frame with elite separation, releases, and reliable hands.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR15: 26.0 implied team total, 24% target share in 2025.

  • 24% target share shows Smith is schemed into be the every-down read, not just a big-play outlet.
  • Elite separation skill set means he can win even in a game that turns into a grind against Washington's defense.

Why Tee Higgins

Start· high

WR2 and high-end complement. Big-bodied X with elite contested-catch and red-zone production.

27-point implied total, 81% snap share and no injury designation make Higgins a locked-in WR2 with WR20 projection vs TB.

  • Contested-catch/red-zone skill set gives Higgins spike-week upside that a target-share gap alone won't fully offset.
  • Higher implied team total and a smaller than Smith's spread suggest Cincinnati may lean pass-heavy in a shootout.

The call

  • Cincinnati's 27.0 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite is one of the better offensive environments on the slate, and Higgins is the primary red-zone winner in that passing attack.
  • Role is fully secure: 81% snap share and an 18% target share across 15 games, with no injury designation on the sheet.
  • A 13.0-point PPR projection and WR20 consensus rank means he clears typical replacement-level WR3 options comfortably; only a script where Cincinnati sits on a lead caps the ceiling.
  • Risk is volume concentration — as the WR-2 his weeks can hinge on touchdowns, but the matchup and total support the floor.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDeVonta SmithTee Higgins
Projected points
Consensus rankWR15WR20
Opponent vs positionWSHno ranking yetTBno ranking yet
Target share24%(2025)18%(2025)
Reception share24%(2025)16%(2025)
Implied total · spread26.0-5.527.0-3.5
Depth chartWR1WR2
Snap share84%(2025)81%(2025)

Signal breakdown

  • 14.8 vs 13.0 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
  • Rank 15 vs 20DeVonta Smith +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 26.0 vs 27.0 team pointsTee Higgins +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 84% vs 81% snap shareDeVonta Smith +

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