Start Tucker Kraft over Deebo Samuel Sr. — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Kraft's Top-10 TE Role Beats Samuel's Diminished WR2 Job Despite a Virtual Points Tie

Nine projected points looks like a wash, but the two players are getting there from very different places: Kraft is producing that line as a legitimate top-ten tight end, while Samuel needs nearly a quarter of San Francisco's targets just to scrape into flex territory. Kraft's snap share keeps climbing as Green Bay leans on him as a red-zone mismatch, and that role matters more against a defense that struggles with big, physical tight ends than Samuel's matchup edge does against a Rams defense with zero games of data to grade. Samuel's floor is real given his target share and clean injury report, but a WR52 consensus rank tells you the rest of the SF passing offense is eating into his ceiling. The gap in raw points is noise; the gap in positional value is not.

What flips it: A Friday questionable-to-out downgrade for Kraft.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 25, 2026

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR52SFvs LAR

5.87.38.9 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tucker Kraft

TE9GBvs MIN

5.57.39.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

24% target share and a 72% snap rate give him a real PPR floor, but a WR52 consensus rank and 8.9 projection make him a flex-only dart.

Clean injury report and a clear No. 2 role give him a stable floor even in a mediocre matchup.
His volume held up through camp per ESPN 2026-08-25, suggesting SF isn't scaling back his role.

The call

The usage is legit: a 24% target share on a 72% snap rate over 16 games is WR1-level volume for this offense, and that alone keeps him startable in deeper PPR builds.
The market disagrees — consensus has him WR52 at 8.9 projected points, which is below a typical 12-team starter and screams low expected efficiency on those looks.
Matchup gives no edge either way: the LAR DvP composite sits 21 of 32 on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's nothing there to break the tie.
Game script is neutral-to-fine with a 22.8 implied team total and a 3.0 spread — close games keep the volume flowing. Start him if you need target floor; sit him if you have a WR3 with a defined red-zone or big-play role.

Latest on Samuel

2026 San Francisco 49ers training camp: Latest intel, updates

Catch up on our daily updates from 49ers training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.

ESPN · Aug 25, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tucker Kraft

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and primary mismatch threat. Powerful Y-tight end with run-after-catch ability and red-zone production.

86% snaps and a 20% target share make Kraft a top-10 TE play; the tough DvP rank comes from a 0-game sample, so discount it — just confirm he's active.

His red-zone usage as GB's primary Y-tight end mismatch is worth more than the raw target share shows.
Snap share still trending up, a signal the offense is funneling more work his way as the season goes.

The call

Role is locked and elite for the position: 86% snap share and a 20% target share over eight games is target-hog usage that plays in any script.
The opponent's 7-of-32 DvP composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that's not a reason to bench a TE9 with this workload.
Game environment is fine: a 23.0 implied total in a 1.5-point game means Green Bay stays balanced and Kraft sees his normal volume rather than getting scripted out.
The one real risk is the questionable tag — if he's downgraded or limited late in the week, pivot; otherwise he's a confident start.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Deebo Samuel Sr.	Tucker Kraft
Projected points	5.87.38.9	5.57.39.1
Consensus rank	WR52	TE9
Opponent vs position	LAR · 21 of 320-game sample	MIN · 7 of 320-game sample
Receptions	23 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving Yards	23 of 32	5 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	27 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	18 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	24%(2025)	20%(2025)
Reception share	27%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	23.0-1.5
Depth chart	WR2	TE1
Snap share	72%(2025)	86%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—