Deebo Samuel Sr. or Mike Washington Jr.: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Deebo's target share carries a thin week for both flex options

Neither of these guys is exciting this week, but Samuel's role gives him a floor Washington simply doesn't have. A quarter of San Francisco's targets going his way means even a quiet game likely nets him a handful of catches, while Washington's touches depend on a Vegas backfield that hasn't fed him volume. The consensus ranks actually favor Washington slightly, which tells you the field sees this as tighter than the model does — but rank order doesn't capture usage, and usage is the separator here. The risk with Samuel is game flow: if the 49ers fall behind big against the Rams, his catches could turn into low-value garbage-time volume.

What flips it: A target-share dip below his 24% mark or confirmation Washington is locked into the early-down role for LV.

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR52SFvs LAR

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Mike Washington Jr.

Mike Washington Jr.

RB50LVvs MIA

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

24% target share keeps him alive, but a WR52 consensus rank and 9.1 projection vs the Rams make him a flex-only dice roll.

  • 24% target share means he's schemed into the game plan regardless of how SF's offense is playing overall.
  • WR-2 slot behind a lead option still leaves him free-access targets on early downs and in the pass game.

The call

  • Usage is the case for him: a 24% target share on 72% of snaps as the WR-2 means volume is locked in regardless of matchup.
  • The market disagrees with the role — 9.1 projected PPR points and a WR52 consensus rank price him as a bench/flex body, not a starter.
  • Game script is neutral-to-tough: a 3.0-point spread with a 22.8 implied team total against the Rams caps the blow-up ceiling.
  • Tiebreaker: start him if your alternative is a low-target WR3 who needs touchdowns; sit him if you have a安全 double-digit projection on the bench.

Why Mike Washington Jr.

Toss-Up

Toss-up — RB50 consensus, projects RB54 this week: 4.9 PPR projected vs MIA.

  • A three-point favorite implies enough positive game script for early-down carries to matter if he sees volume.
  • No injury designation means his workload floor isn't complicated by a compromised role.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDeebo Samuel Sr.Mike Washington Jr.
Projected points
Consensus rankWR52RB50
Opponent vs positionLARno ranking yetMIAno ranking yet
Target share24%(2025)—
Reception share27%(2025)—
Implied total · spread22.8+3.022.3-3.0
Depth chartWR2RB2
Snap share72%(2025)—
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Signal breakdown

  • 9.1 vs 4.9 projected PPR pointsDeebo Samuel Sr. +
  • Rank 52 vs 50Mike Washington Jr. +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 22.8 vs 22.3 team pointsDeebo Samuel Sr. +
  • No injury designationseven
  • Snap shareeven

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