Start Jake Ferguson over Dalton Schultz — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Ferguson's red-zone role and better game script edge out Schultz's raw touch count

Ferguson is the classic seam-and-scores tight end, and Dallas being favored in a game with a strong implied total plays right into that: more competitive snaps, more chances to finish drives instead of settling for checkdowns. Schultz still gets on the field more often, but Houston's tighter spread against Buffalo hints at a game that can turn into damage control, which caps his catch total more than it caps a true possession receiver. The gap in consensus rank looks bigger than the raw production gap, but the underlying game-script signal backs it up. Both are viable teams' TE1s, but Ferguson has more paths to a spike week this Sunday.

What flips it: A late spread shift that makes Houston (not Dallas) the favorite would flip the game-script edge back toward Schultz.

AI editor

Dalton Schultz

TE21HOUvs BUF

4.76.58.4 Projected Points

Start

Jake Ferguson

TE12DALvs NYG

5.57.79.8 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Dalton Schultz

Start

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Reliable underneath/intermediate target with high-volume reception floor.

Start — TE21 consensus, projects TE18 this week: 19% target share in 2025, 8.4 PPR projected vs BUF.

Leads this pair in snap share, so he's on the field for more of Houston's offense even if the ball goes elsewhere first.
His role skews underneath and intermediate, which holds up if Houston has to throw more to catch up.

Why Jake Ferguson

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. High-volume seam target and red-zone weapon for Prescott.

17% target share and a 25.0-point implied team total make Ferguson a stable TE12 floor in a close game Dallas is favored in.

Plays a red-zone-heavy role for Prescott, which matters more in a game Dallas is favored to control the finish of.
A competitive, higher-scoring script gives him more true scoring opportunities than a checkdown-heavy role would.

The call

A 17% target share on 67% of snaps is genuine TE1-level involvement — Ferguson is a primary read in this offense, not a situational piece.
Dallas' 25.0 implied team total is healthy, and a 1.5-point spread points to a competitive game where the offense keeps throwing rather than grinding out a lead.
TE12 at 9.9 projected points is a mid-tier start, not a difference-maker: the floor is fine, but touchdown dependence caps the weekly ceiling.
No injury designation, so the role is locked in — the only thing that tips this to a sit is if you're rostering a top-8 TE alternative.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dalton Schultz	Jake Ferguson
Projected points	4.76.58.4	5.57.79.8
Consensus rank	TE21	TE12
Opponent vs position	BUFno ranking yet	NYGno ranking yet
Target share	19%(2025)	17%(2025)
Reception share	23%(2025)	20%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.0+1.5	25.0-1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	71%(2025)	67%(2025)