Start Dallas Goedert over Juwan Johnson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Goedert's Blocking Role and Team Total Edge Out Johnson's Target Share

Goedert's two-way job as both blocker and receiver keeps him attached to nearly every snap Philadelphia runs, and as a home favorite the Eagles are simply more likely to finish drives in the end zone where he does his damage. Johnson's target share is close enough to Goedert's that the raw gap here looks bigger than it is, but New Orleans sitting as a touchdown-plus underdog usually means fewer clean scoring drives to work with, not more garbage-time volume for him. Both are genuine starting options with real roles in their passing games, so this isn't about talent — it's about which offense is expected to actually score. Johnson still has stand-alone appeal as a big-bodied red-zone target, but he's fighting for points in a tougher environment.

What flips it: A significant uptick in Eagles red-zone trips for Goedert or a shift toward a pass-heavy, come-from-behind script for the Saints would close this gap.

AI editor

Dallas Goedert

TE12PHIvs WSH

6.78.810.9 Projected Points

Start· medium

Juwan Johnson

TE16NOvs DET

4.56.48.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Dallas Goedert

Start· medium

Starting TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable possession target and red-zone threat with run-blocking willingness.

20% target share on 85% of snaps with a 26.0 implied team total — Goedert is a locked-in TE1 play as a 5.5-point favorite.

His willingness to block keeps him on the field on early downs, giving him a receiving floor a pure route-runner wouldn't have.
Philadelphia's favorite status raises the odds of red-zone snaps, exactly where his size becomes most valuable.

The call

A 20% target share is elite for the position and it comes on an 85% snap share, so his floor doesn't depend on touchdown luck.
Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is among the better marks on the board; favored by 5.5, the offense should stay in rhythm rather than get pushed into pure hurry-up.
TE12 consensus with 10.9 projected points is a fringe number in a vacuum, but the volume profile is well ahead of a typical streamer — that's the tiebreaker.
Risk is game script: a comfortable lead into heavy run usage could cap him near the projection rather than above it.

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Why Juwan Johnson

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and primary pass-game option. Big-bodied receiving threat with red-zone usage and high target volume.

18% target share and 75% snaps keep him relevant, but TE16 with an 8.3 projection is right on the 12-team starter line — chase script is the tiebreak.

His big frame and red-zone usage give him touchdown equity even when the surrounding offense stalls.
Trailing often forces more pass attempts late, but that usually means garbage-time volume, not extra scoring chances.

The call

Role is not the problem: 75% snap share and an 18% target share are genuine starting-TE usage, and he's carrying no injury designation into the game.
The projection is the problem: 8.3 PPR points and a TE16 consensus rank put him at replacement level in a 12-team league, where roughly a dozen tight ends are startable.
Game script helps — 7-point underdog with a 20.8 implied total means New Orleans should be throwing late, and Johnson is a primary short-to-intermediate outlet in those spots.
Tips to start if your alternative is a sub-TE12 option or a tight end in a run-heavy favorite's offense; tips to sit if you have a top-12 TE with a defined red-zone role.

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Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dallas Goedert	Juwan Johnson
Projected points	6.78.810.9	4.56.48.3
Consensus rank	TE12	TE16
Opponent vs position	WSHno ranking yet	DETno ranking yet
Target share	20%(2025)	18%(2025)
Reception share	21%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.0-5.5	20.8+7.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	85%(2025)	75%(2025)