Brenton Strange or Juwan Johnson: Who Should You Start?

Strange's clean game script meets Johnson's bigger role in a genuine coin-flip at TE

Strange gets to play with a lead, but that kind of game tends to lean run for Jacksonville and cap the tight end's targets even as the offense stays efficient. Johnson is the more established piece in his passing game, and New Orleans trailing by a touchdown to Detroit is exactly the script that pushes volume to a team's primary catch-point option. Neither situation is dramatically better than the other — one gives you clock control, the other gives you desperation throws — and the tiny point spread between their projections reflects real equilibrium, not a tossed coin ignoring differences. Whichever profile you trust more, positive script efficiency or negative script volume, decides your seat here.

What flips it: An unexpectedly run-heavy Jaguars script or a Saints team that stays competitive would tip this back toward Strange.

AI editor

Brenton Strange

TE19JAXvs CLE

4.86.58.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Juwan Johnson

TE17NOvs DET

4.56.48.3 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Brenton Strange

Toss-Up

TE1 in pass-catching role. Move TE with receiving upside and growing target share.

Toss-up — TE19 consensus, projects TE21 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 16% target share in 2025.

Jacksonville's lead protects the offense's rhythm, but a run-first approach when ahead limits how often he's targeted.
His target share still lags Johnson's, so playing with a lead doesn't automatically mean more receiving work.

Why Juwan Johnson

Start· medium

Starting TE and primary pass-game option. Big-bodied receiving threat with red-zone usage and high target volume.

18% target share and 75% snaps make Johnson a real focal point, and a 7-point deficit script should push volume his way vs DET.

New Orleans trailing by a touchdown to Detroit is the type of script that funnels checkdowns and catch-and-run volume to the primary pass-game option.
His higher target share and consensus rank reflect a bigger, more entrenched role than Strange currently holds.

The call

An 18% target share is genuinely elite usage for the position — that's WR2-level involvement in the passing game and it travels regardless of matchup.
75% snap share means he's on the field for the pass-heavy sequences, not a rotational piece who disappears in obvious throwing downs.
Down 7 with a modest 20.8 implied team total, New Orleans should be throwing to catch up, which inflates his floor even if the offense stalls in scoring range.
The 8.3-point projection and TE17 rank keep the ceiling capped, so he's a volume-based TE1 play rather than a difference-maker — if you roster a top-8 TE, this is an easy pass.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Brenton Strange	Juwan Johnson
Projected points	4.86.58.1	4.56.48.3
Consensus rank	TE19	TE17
Opponent vs position	CLEno ranking yet	DETno ranking yet
Target share	16%(2025)	18%(2025)
Reception share	19%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	20.8+7.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	75%(2025)	75%(2025)