Start Isaiah Likely over Alec Pierce — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely's schemed mismatch role edges out a rusty, questionable Pierce

Pierce just came off the PUP list and is still shaking off rust in practice, which matters a lot for a vertical field-stretcher who needs timing with his quarterback to hit those deep, contested looks. His questionable tag isn't cosmetic here — it's the exact injury note that explains why his usage hasn't translated to target share. Likely, by contrast, is fully healthy and his 14% target share on limited snaps signals the Giants are deploying him as a designed weapon in mismatch spots, not just rotating him through. The rank gap between WR39 and TE14 looks huge next to a near-identical point projection, but it reflects real scarcity — a top-15 TE outproduces a back-half WR far more reliably.

What flips it: A full practice report clearing Pierce's questionable tag late in the week.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 27, 2026

AI editor

Alec Pierce

WR39INDvs BAL

6.58.19.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Alec Pierce

Toss-Up

Outside WR and primary deep threat. Long, vertical field-stretcher with contested-catch ability and 1,000-yard producer.

Toss-up — WR39 consensus, projects WR45 this week: BAL is the 9th-softest matchup vs WRs, 18% target share in 2025.

Outside deep threat still finding rhythm off PUP; the questionable tag flags exactly that kind of rust risk.
Leads in snap share by a wide margin, but an 18% target share suggests he's often stretching the field as a decoy.

Latest on Pierce

Colts No. 1 WR Pierce off PUP list, knocks 'rust off' in practice

The Colts activated wide receiver Alec Pierce off the physically unable to perform list Thursday.

ESPN · Aug 27, 2026

Can Alec Pierce be ready for Colts' opener? Adam Schefter weighs in

ESPN · Aug 27, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Receiving TE with mismatch traits. Vertical seam-stretcher used in flex alignments more than as an in-line blocker.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

A 14% target share on just 59% of snaps shows a schemed role, not incidental usage — he's targeted with purpose.
Fully healthy with a softer matchup and a slightly higher implied total, both of which favor a seam-stretching TE.

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Alec Pierce	Isaiah Likely
Projected points	6.58.19.7	5.67.59.4
Consensus rank	WR39	TE14
Opponent vs position	BAL · 24 of 320-game sample	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	31 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving Yards	30 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	6 of 32
Targets	31 of 32	9 of 32
Anytime TD	13 of 32	5 of 32
Target share	18%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	WR1	TE1
Snap share	86%(2025)	59%(2025)
Injury designation	Q	—