NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 19, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
301-247
548 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
4-3 on 7 leans
NRFI 3-1 · YRFI 1-2
NRFI Leans
4
Michael King is the anchor here, sitting on an 87% first-inning scoreless mark across 23 starts with four clean openers in his last five. He faces a Mets lineup that pushes across a run in the first just 27% of the time and only 26% against righties. With San Diego's bats even quieter early, the model's 57% NRFI beats the book's 49%.
- NRFI lean — Michael King (87% NRFI) and Robert Stock (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -112 (49% implied); the model has it 57%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Clay Holmes has kept the first inning clean in eight of ten starts for the Cubs, and that reliability anchors this lean. The Chicago bats work in his favor too, as the Cubs plate a first-inning run just 26% of the time — 25th in MLB. Sean Newcomb's 2-for-2 NRFI record is a tiny sample, but the market's 51% still leaves a slim edge toward NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Clay Holmes has worked a scoreless first in 80% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (51% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- NRFI lean — Parker Messick has worked a scoreless first in 92% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied).
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
Drew Rasmussen has been money in the opening frame, posting an 82% NRFI mark across 22 starts and holding the line in each of his last five. That matters here, especially against a Toronto lineup that scores first in just 22% of games — dead last in MLB. Scherzer's shakier 50% first-inning number is the main reason this leans NRFI rather than tilting harder.
- NRFI lean — Drew Rasmussen has worked a scoreless first in 82% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -127 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Taj Bradley has kept the first frame clean in just 52% of his 23 starts, and the Twins offense — scoring in the opening inning 34% of the time, second-most in MLB — makes for a shaky combination at Target Field's slightly hitter-friendly run environment. Smith-Shawver's spotless NRFI mark comes from a single start, so lean YRFI here.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -7.5 (11% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Jeffrey Springs enters with just a 48% first-inning clean rate and only two NRFIs in his last five, and Kansas City hangs a run in the first 31% of the time — same clip they post against lefties. Kauffman's slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor nudges things further, which is why the model sees a 43% scoreless chance versus the book's 52%.
- YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 31% of games (11th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 43%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Coors Field and its 128 run factor are doing the heavy lifting here, and the Rockies pair it with a first-inning bat that plates a run 34% of the time — fourth-most in the league. Kyle Freeland's shaky 62% NRFI rate and 2-of-5 recent run doesn't help Colorado's cause. Roki Sasaki's sparkling 86% mark is the lone thing keeping this from tilting harder toward YRFI.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +122 (42% implied); the model has it 41%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
8
Paul Skenes brings a sturdy 75% first-inning scoreless rate across 24 starts to PNC Park, which is exactly the kind of anchor NRFI backers want. The problem is Jackson Jobe on the other side, sitting at just 50% over a razor-thin two-start sample against a Detroit lineup that scores in the first more than any team in baseball. Too much uncertainty to lean either way.
- Coin flip — Paul Skenes' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (95% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Brandon Pfaadt brings an elite 83% NRFI mark across 12 starts, and Boston's bats have gone quiet early, plating a first-inning run in just 25% of games and 24% against righties. That would normally tilt this toward NRFI, but Fenway's 108 run factor and Payton Tolle's more modest 70% keep it honest — a genuine coin flip at 50%.
- Coin flip — Brandon Pfaadt's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Sandy Alcantara has been elite at avoiding early damage, sitting on an 84% NRFI mark with a spotless 5-for-5 over his last five starts. The tension is that Aaron Nola has wobbled recently, going just 2-for-5 lately, and the Phillies plate a first-inning run 33% of the time. That mix leaves things right at a coin flip, matching the market's 51% NRFI read.
- Coin flip — Sandy Alcantara's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Will Warren's 68% first-inning shutdown rate is the sturdiest number on the board, and it fits nicely against a Baltimore lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 25% of the time. On the other side, Chris Bassitt (60% NRFI) draws a Yankees group that scores in the first only 22% against righties. The model's 51% barely nudges past the book's 47%, so this stays a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Will Warren's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 30% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Chase Burns has been a first-inning wall for Cincinnati, posting a 91% NRFI mark across 22 starts, which tilts one side of this heavily. But Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor and Matthew Liberatore's shakier 57% clip — including scoring in three of his last five first innings — even things back out. The model lands at a true 50/50, essentially a wash against the book's 52%.
- Coin flip — Chase Burns' 91% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Dustin May has kept the first inning clean in all five of his last starts and sits at 68% NRFI on the year, giving Milwaukee the stronger arm here. Logan Gilbert's 61% mark is solid too, and neither the Mariners (29% first-inning scoring) nor Brewers (28%) put up runs early very often. Still, the model splits it near 50/50, a touch under the market's 56%.
- Coin flip — Dustin May's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 29% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Cade Cavalli's 76% first-inning NRFI rate, backed by five clean openers in his last five starts, is the reason to like the quiet side here. The problem is Kumar Rocker, who's put up just a 43% NRFI over 21 starts and faces a Nationals lineup that scores in the first 33% of the time. Those competing forces leave this one right around a coin flip.
- Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Walbert Urena arrives with an eye-catching 90% NRFI mark across 20 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five, which normally screams zeros. The problem is the other side: Houston's Ethan Pecko has no season starts to lean on, and both lineups plate a first-inning run 34% of the time. That unknown keeps this one squarely at a coin flip.
- Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -114.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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