Jordan Addison or Tyler Warren: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Jordan Addison and Tyler Warren grade out even this week. Addison's best edge is availability (a clean report to Warren's Questionable), Warren's best edge is the consensus rank (TE4 to WR44) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jordan Addison

WR44MINvs GB

6.48.29.9 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Warren

TE4INDvs BAL

7.39.812.2 Projected Points

Sit

Why Jordan Addison

Toss-Up· medium

WR2 and vertical field-stretcher. Slight-framed separator with deep-ball tracking and red-zone production.

85% snaps and a 21% target share give a real floor, but 9.9 projected points and a WR45 tag make him a pure replacement-level flex vs GB.

GB ranks 17 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.

The call

The role is not the problem: 85% snap share and a 21% target share over 14 games make Addison a locked-in WR2 who gets fed regardless of script.
The matchup is neutral at best — Green Bay grades 17 of 32 in the DvP composite, and that number carries a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no edge to bank on.
A 21.5 implied team total with a 1.5-point spread points to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough passing volume to matter, not enough to project a spike week.
Tiebreaker: start him if your alternative is a sub-15% target-share flyer; sit him if you have a WR attached to a higher implied total or a genuinely soft coverage matchup.

Latest on Addison

2026 Minnesota Vikings training camp: Latest intel, updates

Catch up on our updates from Vikings training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.

ESPN · Aug 26, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tyler Warren

Sit

TE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.

Sit — TE4 consensus, projects TE3 this week: BAL is the 5th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 21% target share in 2025.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
BAL ranks 5 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 84% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Warren

Role

Tyler Warren was a frequent target in practice, catching three passes from Daniel Jones during the first-team offense's late-game scenario.

Training Camp Notebook: Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren shine as joint practice with Patriots ends on a high note colts.com · Aug 11, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jordan Addison	Tyler Warren
Projected points	6.48.29.9	7.39.812.2
Consensus rank	WR44	TE4
Opponent vs position	GB · 17 of 3217-game sample	BAL · 5 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	14 of 32	7 of 32
Receiving Yards	14 of 32	9 of 32
Receiving TDs	27 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	10 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	22 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	21%(2025)	21%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	21.5+1.5	23.0+3.5
Depth chart	WR2	TE1
Snap share	85%(2025)	84%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—