Start Pat Freiermuth over Elijah Higgins — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Freiermuth's real role dwarfs Higgins' fringe one

Freiermuth isn't just projected higher, he's built the floor to hit it: a seam/underneath role with red-zone touches gives him touches even in a game where Pittsburgh is favored and expected to score in bulk. Higgins is stuck in a move/H-back role that hasn't produced targets all year, and a questionable tag on top of a nearly non-existent receiving role removes any margin for error. The gap here isn't projection noise — a nearly six-point spread at tight end reflects two totally different jobs, not two flavors of the same one. The lone risk with Freiermuth is game-script related if Pittsburgh leans on the run with a lead, but that's a bench-him-for-more-points problem, not a start/sit one.

What flips it: A sudden increase in Higgins' snap share tied to an injury elsewhere on Arizona's depth chart, or a limiting practice designation for Freiermuth, would be the only things worth revisiting this call.

AI editor

Elijah Higgins

TEARIvs LAC

1.31.92.6 Projected Points

Sit· high

Pat Freiermuth

TE24PITvs ATL

4.96.78.4 Projected Points

Start

Why Elijah Higgins

Sit· high

TE2 in move/H-back role. Versatile alignment with developing receiving production.

2.5 projected points on a 6% target share, plus a questionable tag and a 17.0 implied total as an 11.5-point underdog — unstartable.

His move/H-back alignment means his routes come from unpredictable spots, but that versatility hasn't translated into targets.
Any spike week would require a sudden role change; nothing in his 2025 usage suggests it's coming.

The call

A 6% target share on 43% snaps is a blocking-first role; there's no volume path to TE1 production even in a positive script.
The 2.5-point projection is replacement level at the position — nearly any streaming tight end with a defined pass-game role beats it.
Vegas has this team at a 17.0 implied total while chasing an 11.5-point spread; garbage-time targets would go to receivers, not the No. 2 tight end.
The questionable designation adds inactive risk on top of an already negligible ceiling.

Why Pat Freiermuth

Start

Starting TE in dual-role usage. Reliable underneath/seam target with red-zone production.

Start — TE24 consensus, projects TE17 this week: ATL is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 12% target share in 2025.

His seam/underneath role gives him schematic access to easy completions regardless of how the score breaks.
Established red-zone usage gives him touchdown equity that a 6% target share simply can't match.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Elijah Higgins	Pat Freiermuth
Projected points	1.31.92.6	4.96.78.4
Consensus rank	—	TE24
Opponent vs position	LAC · 5 of 320-game sample	ATL · 3 of 320-game sample
Receptions	3 of 32	3 of 32
Receiving Yards	4 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	2 of 32	4 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	6%(2025)	12%(2025)
Reception share	8%(2025)	13%(2025)
Implied total · spread	17.0+11.5	22.8-3.0
Depth chart	TE2	TE1
Snap share	43%(2025)	53%(2025)
Injury designation	Questionable	—