Caleb Williams or Daniel Jones: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him QB11 at 16.3 projected points; in a 12-team single-QB league that's a starting-caliber weekly floor, not a bench arm.
• Role is unambiguous — listed as Chicago's starter on the post-cuts depth chart with Bagent second and Keenum third, and no injury designation.
• The 8-of-32 DvP composite reads stiff, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle yet.
• Game script is neutral-to-favorable: 2.5-point favorite with a 23.5 implied total means no negative-script volume spike, but also no reason to expect a shutdown.

The call

• Consensus has him QB20 at 15.2 projected points, which is below the starting line in a 12-team league where roughly a dozen QBs are rostered as starters.
• The 23-of-32 DvP composite looks inviting on paper but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence — there's no reliable matchup tailwind here.
• A 23.0 implied team total in a one-score game (3.5 spread) caps the ceiling; Jones needs volume and rushing production just to hit his projection.
• He's the locked-in QB1 with no injury designation, so the floor is real — but floor without ceiling is exactly the profile you stream past.