Start Amon-Ra St. Brown over Tetairoa McMillan — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Brown — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 18.8 to McMillan's 14.8 and is the higher consensus play (WR4 to WR16). McMillan's edge is snap share, 87% to 85%. The gap is wide.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR4DETvs NO

12.015.418.8 Projected Points

Start

Tetairoa McMillan

WR16CARvs CHI

9.812.314.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Amon-Ra St. Brown

Start

WR1 and primary target. High-volume slot/separation receiver with elite hands, route precision, and red-zone production.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR4: NO is the 10th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 27.8 implied team total.

NO ranks 10 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 27.8 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.

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Why Tetairoa McMillan

Start

WR1 and primary target. Big-bodied X receiver with elite catch radius and contested-catch dominance, high-volume role.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: CHI is the 11th-softest matchup vs WRs, 25% target share in 2025.

CHI ranks 22 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.0 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 87% snap share in 2025.

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Head-to-head stats

Metric	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Tetairoa McMillan
Projected points	12.015.418.8	9.812.314.8
Consensus rank	WR4	WR16
Opponent vs position	NO · 10 of 320-game sample	CHI · 22 of 320-game sample
Receptions	6 of 32	14 of 32
Receiving Yards	7 of 32	26 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	29 of 32
Targets	6 of 32	11 of 32
Anytime TD	18 of 32	30 of 32
Target share	31%(2025)	25%(2025)
Reception share	30%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	27.8-7.0	21.0+2.5
Depth chart	WR1	WR1
Snap share	85%(2025)	87%(2025)