NRFI Results

Richard Lovelady has kept four of five starts scoreless in the first, but that 80% NRFI rate rests on a tiny sample, and he draws a Tigers lineup that plates first-inning runs in 34% of games, fourth-most in MLB. Framber Valdez's steadier 66% over 29 starts faces a middle-of-the-pack Nationals offense, and with neutral Comerica Park offering no tiebreaker, the model lands at 47% scoreless, a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Richard Lovelady's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -127.5 (100% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Max Scherzer has kept the first inning clean in just 38% of his 16 starts, and only once in his last five, which keeps the model from leaning NRFI. Chris Bassitt pushes back at 69%, and neither lineup scares anyone early, with Baltimore 27th and Toronto 30th in first-inning scoring. At neutral Camden Yards, the model lands at 50%, a touch below the book's 54%.

• Coin flip — Chris Bassitt's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (27th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Oracle Park's 94 run factor and Connor Prielipp's four scoreless first innings in his last five starts both point toward a quiet opening. Minnesota counters with MLB's most productive first-inning offense, scoring in 35% of games. Cesar Perdomo's 67% NRFI rate comes from just three starts, which is too thin to trust. The model's 48% makes this a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Cesar Perdomo's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132.5 (54% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied).
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 30th-most in MLB.

Logan Henderson has kept 88% of his 17 starts scoreless in the first, but he walks into Citizens Bank Park against a Phillies lineup that scores in the opening frame 33% of the time, sixth-most in baseball. Aaron Nola's 73% NRFI rate is a notch softer, and a 102 park factor tilts things slightly toward offense. The model lands at 51% scoreless, essentially a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Logan Henderson's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Lake Bachar's 73% NRFI rate looks sturdy, but it comes from just 11 starts, while Matthew Liberatore sits at a more modest 62% across 29. The Pirates have been quiet early against lefties, scoring in the first only 19% of the time, and PNC Park's 98 factor trims runs slightly. Still, the model lands at 49% scoreless, a hair under the book's 53% and essentially even.

• Coin flip — Lake Bachar's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -131 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Foster Griffin has blanked the first in 83% of his 29 starts, including all of his last five, against a Red Sox lineup that scores early just 25% of the time. The catch is Sonny Gray: a 67% NRFI rate, only two clean firsts in his last five, and hitter-friendly Fenway (108 park factor) around him. The model calls it a near toss-up at 52%, below the book's 57%.

• Coin flip — Foster Griffin's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cleveland Guardians' 28% first-inning bats (22nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -156 (57% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Gerrit Cole's 76% NRFI mark over 21 starts and Ian Seymour's 73% across 15 point toward a quiet opening frame at neutral Yankee Stadium, yet the model lands at just 51%. The lineups explain the gap: New York's first-inning scoring rate climbs to 34% against lefties, while Tampa Bay ranks 9th in MLB at 32%. The book's 58% NRFI looks more confident than the numbers support.

• Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -158 (58% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Chris Sale has kept 88% of his first innings clean across 25 starts, and a Reds lineup that scores early just 15% of the time against lefties offers little resistance. The trouble is Andrew Abbott, whose 53% NRFI rate, with only two scoreless openers in his last five, gives the Braves room at slightly hitter-friendly Truist Park, leaving the model at a near-even 51%.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 15% against left-handers.

George Kirby's 61% NRFI rate over 28 starts, with just 2 scoreless firsts in his last 5, runs into a Houston lineup that scores in the opening frame 35% of the time, second-most in MLB, and 37% against righties. T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor and Ethan Pecko's 75% mark push back, though four starts is a thin sample, leaving the model at 51%, well below the book's 89%.

• Coin flip — Ethan Pecko's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120.5 (89% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Robbie Ray has kept 79% of his 28 starts scoreless in the first, and San Diego's lineup scores in the opening frame just 21% of the time against righties, which gives Yoshinobu Yamamoto some cover for his softer 69% NRFI rate. Still, a Dodgers offense crossing the plate early in 31% of games and a 102 park factor keep things tight, with the model at just 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Robbie Ray's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.