NRFI Results

Both starters own strong first-inning marks — Michael Soroka at 75% NRFI, Bryce Elder at 77%, and each has kept the frame clean in four of his last five. But Truist Park's slightly above-average run factor of 102 and two lineups that both plate a first-inning run 31% of the time even things out, landing this squarely at a 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Dylan Cease has kept the first frame clean in all five of his last five starts, and Ryan Weathers has matched him with four scoreless firsts in that same stretch. Toronto's bats rarely get going early too, scoring in the first just 21% of the time and a meager 17% against lefties. Still, the model's 52% sits below the book's 59% NRFI, keeping this closer to a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Dylan Cease's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -175 (59% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 21% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Drew Anderson has kept the first inning clean in all four of his starts, and Sean Burke's 74% NRFI rate over 19 outings backs the scoreless lean. But both offenses push runs across early at similar clips — Detroit scores in the first 34% of the time, Chicago 33% — which is why the model sits at 48% and calls this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Drew Anderson's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Both starters are keeping this one clean early: Eury Perez has posted a 70% NRFI mark and gone scoreless in the first over each of his last five outings, while Nick Lodolo brings a 77% NRFI rate. The offset comes from Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor, which nudges things back toward even and lands this squarely as a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Christian Scott has held the line in the first inning at a 71% clip this year, and the Nationals lineup he's facing puts up a first-inning run 34% of the time — 4th-most in MLB. That tension between Scott's steadiness and Washington's aggressive top of the order is why this sits at a true coin flip, with the model and book both landing at 50%.

• Coin flip — Christian Scott's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

The wild card here is Blade Tidwell, who's put up a 0% first-inning NRFI rate through just two starts — a red flag, but far too small a sample to trust. Working the other way, San Francisco's bats rank 29th in first-inning scoring and just 17% against righties like Gabriel Hughes. Those crosscurrents, plus Oracle Park's run-suppressing 94 factor, leave this one a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Gabriel Hughes' 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 17% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Jacob Lopez has kept the first frame clean in 87% of his 15 starts, and Cody Bradford has been perfect through two — though that tiny sample keeps confidence low. Both the Rangers and A's have scored in the first just 29% of the time, so the arms have an edge. Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is the wild card here.

• Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 29% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -1 (2% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.

Noah Cameron has been elite at keeping the first frame clean, posting an 82% NRFI over 22 starts and a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five. The problem is his opponent: the Angels put up first-inning runs more than any team in MLB, scoring 38% of the time against lefties. Ryan Johnson's solid 70% NRFI helps the KC side, leaving this one right at a 49% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -9 (13% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Logan Henderson brings a sparkling 91% NRFI mark across 11 starts into Dodger Stadium, and both he and Skubal have kept the first inning clean in each of their last five outings. The tension is the Dodgers bats, who plate a run in the opening frame 31% of the time — 10th-most in MLB. That offense keeps this closer to a toss-up, and the model's 51% edges just under the book's 54%.

• Coin flip — Logan Henderson's 91% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.

Two aces meet at Daikin Park, with Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown both carrying identical 82% first-inning NRFI marks — Brown has been especially sharp, spotless in his last five. The catch is Houston's bat, which puts up first-inning runs 34% of the time, third-most in MLB, and 37% against righties like Woo. That tension keeps things close, with the model at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Bryan Woo's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.