NRFI Results

Clay Holmes has stranded first-inning trouble in 78% of his nine starts, easily the strongest number on the board here. The tension comes from Matthew Liberatore, whose 55% NRFI rate and 2-of-5 recent skid pull the other way, though the Cubs' bats have scored in the first just 25% of the time. It nets out to a near even split at Wrigley.

• Coin flip — Clay Holmes' 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Both starters at Comerica sport spotless first-inning marks, but Sean Newcomb and Jackson Jobe each have just one start to lean on, so those 100% NRFI rates carry little weight. Detroit puts up a first-inning run in 34% of games (29% against lefties), while the White Sox check in at 32%, leaving this a genuine coin flip at the model's 48%.

• Books price this NRFI at -116 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Steven Matz brings just a 44% first-inning scoreless rate across nine starts, which is why this game refuses to lean cleanly toward NRFI. Working the other direction, Baltimore's bats have plated a first-inning run in only 26% of games and a tiny 10% against lefties like Matz. With Bassitt's 56% NRFI mark splitting the difference, the model lands right at 49% — a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Chris Bassitt's 56% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 10% against left-handers.

Andrew Alvarez has kept the first frame clean in all nine of his starts this year, a spotless mark that would tilt this toward NRFI on its own. The problem is the other side: Robert Stock owns just a two-start sample, and Washington's bats rank 2nd in MLB at scoring in the first, plating a run 35% of the time against righties. That tension keeps it a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Gerrit Cole has kept the first frame clean in 79% of his starts and all five of his last five, which is the anchor here — Toronto's bats rank 30th in first-inning scoring at just 22%. The reason this stays a coin flip is Shane Bieber's shakier 56% NRFI rate, giving the Yankees' more active lineup a path to break through. Model and market essentially agree at 53/52.

• Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Chris Sale's been untouchable early, posting a 90% NRFI mark across 20 starts and going scoreless in the first over each of his last five outings. Brandon Pfaadt counters with an 82% clip of his own, and neither offense scores much in the opening frame — Atlanta at 30%, Arizona at 31%. Truist's slightly hitter-friendly park factor keeps this one close to even, hence the near coin-flip.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Peter Lambert brings the sharpest first-inning number to Daikin Park, sitting scoreless in 80% of his 20 starts, while George Kirby counters at a solid 71%. The bats offer little push either — Seattle scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time against righties, and Houston's 35% mark isn't enough to tip this cleanly. That leaves the model at 51%, a genuine coin flip just under the market's 53%.

• Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -131 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Yamamoto's 70% NRFI rate over 20 starts anchors the Dodgers' side, and Gasser has been sharp too, holding the zero in 4 of his last 5. Neither offense does much early — Milwaukee scores first-inning runs just 28% of the time, the Dodgers 27% against left-handers. The pitching leans quiet, but at 49% scoreless this one's a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.